The logic behind the current market situation is actually quite clear—using tariffs as leverage to bring Europe to the negotiation table, paving the way for larger geopolitical goals. This strategy yields immediate results: first suppress the market price to create panic, then release positive news to push prices higher after accumulating positions. Based on the timeline, the turning point could be around February 1st, or even earlier. Once Europe backs down (which is highly likely based on history), the market will quickly recover.

The past year's trend has already validated a pattern: the market's reaction to tariff policies is excessively sensitive. The person holding the cards doesn't have many left, so tariffs are repeatedly used and have almost become a routine operation. This means we must get used to volatility, or even see volatility as a trading opportunity.

From a capital perspective, gold continues to rise, while risk assets are under pressure. This reflects a reality—there is no asset that truly reassures investors. Capital is fleeing from instability, and the rotation in commodities and equities is less about active choice and more about forced risk aversion.

Before November, the situation will be more complicated. If midterm elections result in a loss, the impeachment process could be triggered. Therefore, all efforts will be made to ensure election victories, and intense volatility in the crypto market is almost certain.

The black swan risk I am most concerned about is actions against Canada. Once such moves are made, the capital markets will react violently. Everyone must be prepared with risk management plans and capital allocation strategies.