From the cyclical patterns of the crypto market, the view reflects a composite judgment on macro liquidity, technological cycles, and market sentiment. He believes that the market will show a pattern of first decline and then rise in 2026, initially suppressed by geopolitical and tariff policies, but ultimately achieving a strong finish driven by the Fed's dovish shift and the development of AI and blockchain industries. This judgment aligns with the typical behavior of risk assets during liquidity expectation shifts in history.

The expectation of Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high is not an isolated view but is based on the logic that capital flows into risk assets following the start of a rate-cutting cycle. Notably, he did not reaffirm the previous $250,000 forecast, which may reflect increased short-term uncertainty or a reassessment of volatility risks. From related information, he has long emphasized the potential for Ethereum to outperform Bitcoin, which is closely related to institutional adoption, on-chain asset tokenization, and regulatory progress.

Market divergence indeed exists, such as the target price differences between Galaxy Digital and JPMorgan, which essentially reflect differing paces of liquidity easing. Meanwhile, Tom Lee’s continuous perspective indicates a preference for seeking certainty from structural trends (such as the integration of AI and blockchain, and the Fed’s policy shift) rather than short-term price fluctuations. This perspective is especially important in the crypto space, where high asset volatility often causes investors to focus excessively on noise and overlook macro signals.

Ultimately, such forecasts need to be dynamically adjusted based on actual policy implementation, on-chain data (such as stablecoin inflows and institutional holdings changes), and global liquidity indicators. History shows that during rate-cutting cycles, crypto assets often have excess return potential, but the path is usually more turbulent than initially expected.