The market snapshot on the morning of January 21st looks a bit nerve-wracking. ETH is currently priced at $2956.32 (about ¥20,700), down -7.21% over the past 24 hours. Although it has slightly rebounded by 0.59% in the last hour, can this rebound hold? To be honest, the highest in a day was over $3200, and the lowest dropped to $2918. Behind the 7.77 billion trading volume, what’s really going on? Over $1 billion in liquidation occurred in 24 hours, with 180,000 people being liquidated, nine-tenths of which are long positions. Looking at these numbers, it’s still a bit chilling.

Looking at the bigger picture, global risk assets are all declining across the board. The US stock Nasdaq has fallen below 2%, Bitcoin has already broken the critical line of 89,000, and ETH has also broken through its upward channel support level. This is no small matter.

From a technical perspective, a strong rebound in the short term is almost impossible. The MACD on the 1-hour, 2-hour, and 4-hour charts are all maintaining a death cross, and the bearish momentum continues to expand. The rebound on the hourly level is very weak—essentially just a technical correction during a downtrend, not a trend reversal signal. The current price oscillates around $2950, with the $3000 level above acting as resistance after previously being support, and the real strong support is at $2920 (the lower boundary of the upward channel plus a previous dense area).

What about the capital aspect? It’s not very optimistic either. After a sharp decline with high volume, the hourly trading volume has not significantly increased, indicating that those trying to bottom fish are very cautious. The rebound is not supported by new funds at all. Market sentiment remains in panic; retail investors are extremely fearful, institutions are watching from the sidelines, and it’s very difficult to form genuine buying momentum in the short term.

The two most likely scenarios moving forward are: the baseline scenario (70% probability) is a weak sideways rebound, which will encounter resistance and fall back when reaching the $2980 to $3000 range. The rebound will not exceed 1%, and the overall rhythm is a weak correction combined with slow decline. Why? Because the bearish alignment across multiple timeframes has not changed, the rebound lacks momentum, and the selling pressure at resistance levels is too heavy. The risk scenario (30% probability) is more severe: if the $2920 support is broken, the price could directly drop to the $2900 level. This trigger condition would be a continued weakness in US stocks or Bitcoin breaking below the critical support of 88,000, at which point ETH’s sentiment-driven sell-off would be inevitable.