Bitcoin has fallen from $95,000 to $91,000, and the market sentiment in the options market is already very clear—bearish. According to on-chain data, the probability of dropping below $80,000 by the end of June is 30%, while the chance of surpassing $120,000 is only 19%, which is enough to illustrate the situation.

More interestingly, the specific options layout shows a clustering of put options in the $75,000 to $80,000 range, subtly hinting at a target—possibly moving toward the mid-$75,000 level. The spot price has not fully reflected this downside risk yet, and the negative skew of options further confirms the dominance of the bears.

External factors are also contributing. The European tariff dispute continues to ferment, coupled with geopolitical uncertainties, making crypto investors noticeably more cautious. This is not alarmist—since the previous high of $126,000, the market has already retraced over 30%, with frequent liquidations of long positions. It’s somewhat reminiscent of the crash triggered by tariffs in April 2025, with history repeating itself to some extent.

When volatility surges, risk management must come first. Greed or complacency at this point can be very costly. Ethereum and other major cryptocurrencies are also under similar pressure, so don’t be blinded by rebounds.