#市场走势 Looking at VanEck's latest 2026 outlook, there's a detail worth pondering. Bitcoin experienced an 80% decline in the last cycle, but the current volatility has already decreased by nearly half. This suggests that if a correction occurs, the magnitude could be reduced to around 40%—the market has already priced in 35% of the decline. In other words, extreme risks are gradually being released.

More importantly, that four-year cycle pattern. History tells us that 2026 is more likely to be a year of consolidation rather than a surge or a crash. What does this mean for our asset allocation? It's not about betting on the direction but maintaining discipline amid uncertainty.

My advice remains the same—build a 1% to 3% Bitcoin allocation through dollar-cost averaging. This proportion is suitable for most people, balancing risk and participation in the long-term potential of this asset class. More importantly, learn to increase holdings during panic-driven liquidations and reduce during overheated market speculation. This isn't about trying to time the market precisely but managing positions to navigate market cycles.

On-chain activity, although still somewhat sluggish, has begun to show signs of improvement. This indicates that the ecosystem is healing and fundamentals are solidifying. Instead of worrying about short-term fluctuations, focus on establishing a long-term, sustainable allocation strategy. The market's complexity is being digested, and all we need to do is stay patient and disciplined.