ETH liquidation intensity imbalance: The risk of short positions breaking through $3128 far exceeds the downside risk

According to the latest news, if ETH breaks through $3,128, the cumulative short liquidation strength on mainstream CEXs will reach $1.464 billion; conversely, if it falls below $2,834, the long liquidation strength will be only $603 million. This 2.4 times difference in liquidation strength reflects an interesting risk asymmetry in the current market.

The True Meaning of Liquidation Strength

Distance between current price and key points

ETH’s current price is $2,978.54, situated between two key liquidation points: above at $3,128 (about $150 or 5% away) and below at $2,834 (about $144 or 5% away). The seemingly symmetrical distances conceal a completely asymmetric liquidation risk.

Why is short liquidation strength far greater than long

The $1.464 billion short liquidation strength compared to $603 million long liquidation strength shows a clear asymmetry:

• Short liquidation strength is 2.4 times that of longs
• This means that if ETH breaks above $3,128, the forced liquidation of short orders will be much larger than the liquidation of longs during a decline
• From a market structure perspective, short positions are more concentrated, and the risk release is more intense

Historical Data Comparison: Trends in Liquidation Strength

Based on relevant information, we can observe the evolution of ETH liquidation strength over the past few days:

Data shows that short liquidation strength has been rising steadily (from $885 million to $1.464 billion), while long liquidation strength remains relatively stable around $600 million. This indicates that short positions are continuously accumulating in the market.

Market sentiment background

According to relevant information, ETH has recently experienced a significant correction: down 6.50% in 24 hours, and down 10.94% over 7 days. Under this downward pressure, short sellers may be increasing their positions, leading to a continuous rise in short liquidation strength. Meanwhile, longs are gradually being cleared out during the adjustment, with liquidation strength remaining relatively stable.

The Two Sides of Market Risk

Upward risk: chain reaction of short liquidation

If ETH breaks above $3,128, the $1.464 billion short liquidation means:

• A large number of shorts are forced to close and buy back
• This could trigger a liquidity wave, further pushing prices higher
• The buying pressure from short covering may accelerate the rise, creating positive feedback

Downward risk: relatively mild long liquidation

The $603 million long liquidation strength is comparatively weaker, indicating:

• Long positions are relatively dispersed, without concentrated risk points
• Even if it falls below $2,834, the impact of liquidation will be limited
• The market may not experience extreme acceleration downward

Personal Observation

From the asymmetry in liquidation strength, the current main risk is upward. Short sellers have accumulated a large number of positions, with their stop-loss points relatively concentrated. This structure suggests that once ETH starts rising, there could be significant short covering pressure. In contrast, the downward risk liquidation strength is much milder, providing some support for downside movement.

Summary

The imbalance in current liquidation strength reflects the concentration of short positions in the market. The $1.464 billion short liquidation strength versus $603 million long liquidation strength shows a 2.4-fold difference, which is not just a numerical detail but indicates the actual risk distribution in the market. For traders, understanding this asymmetry is crucial: the $3,128 level above is a key point that could trigger large-scale short covering, while the $2,834 level below is relatively moderate. In a high-volatility environment, understanding the distribution of liquidation strength helps in more accurately assessing potential liquidity shocks during price breakthroughs.