【Market Overview】

ETH current price is 2992 USDT, down 6.89% in the past 24 hours. From the daily chart, the price dipped to around 2922 today and then rebounded. The 1-hour chart shows very narrow movement with hardly any significant volatility. What's the background? Global risk assets are being sold off, US and European tariffs issues are still fermenting, and risk aversion sentiment is clearly rising. Cryptocurrencies, due to their inherent volatility, are being hit even harder.

【Technical Analysis】

Support and resistance levels deserve close attention. The most critical short-term support is in the 2930-2950 range, where the previous low and the lower boundary of the ascending channel coincide, making this a relatively stable support zone. If this support breaks, there are still defenses at 2915-2922 below. On the upside, resistance is concentrated at 3010-3030, which is the confluence of the 15-minute golden line resistance and today’s rebound high. Breaking through this could attempt to test the Fibonacci midpoint at 3088.

Indicators are somewhat unclear. The MACD bearish histogram is shrinking, and bullish momentum is slightly recovering, but the daily chart still shows a death cross that hasn't been resolved yet. On the 1-hour chart, no golden cross signals are visible for now. The KDJ oscillator is hovering around 42 in the neutral zone, providing no clear direction. Trading volume has slightly increased but remains generally low, indicating market caution. During rebounds, there’s little capital follow-through, so the short-term trend might be a "weak rebound + narrow oscillation."

【Future Outlook】

Looking at the 1-hour chart, the most probable scenario remains range-bound oscillation.

Optimistically, if the 2930 support holds and spot orders increase appropriately, there’s a chance to test the resistance zone at 3010-3030. However, in terms of strength, the rebound may be limited, and the key resistance at 3050 might not be broken.

Pessimistically, if support is lost and trading volume increases, the price could quickly seek the 2915 stop-loss line, possibly even dropping into the 2900 level. Be cautious of panic selling, which could lead to a sharp short-term decline.

The neutral scenario is that neither bulls nor bears have the upper hand, with prices oscillating between 2950 and 3000, waiting for macro news or large orders to break the deadlock.