Bitcoin today fluctuated around the $91,000 level, with intraday declines of 2%-3%. Compared to yesterday's high of $96,500, it has retraced 5.7%, and the year's gains are facing significant pressure.

From a technical perspective, the hourly chart is in a clear downward channel. The combination of increased volume on the bearish candles and weak rebound signals indicates that the bulls' support is notably weak. The MACD death cross sign remains unchanged; although bearish momentum has weakened, there is no divergence at the bottom, and the downtrend continues. The price has broken below all short-term moving averages, with the MA5 at $91,500 acting as the first resistance to a rebound. The simultaneous decline in volume and price suggests selling pressure has not been fully released, and the short-term correction process is far from over.

Key price levels: Looking downward, $90,000 serves as a psychological threshold and previous support level that requires close attention. Below that, the $88,000-$90,000 zone converges with moving averages and Fibonacci retracement levels, forming a strong support. Looking upward, the first resistance is at $91,500(MA5). A break above this points to $93,000(MA10+MA30), with the strong resistance zone above at $95,000-$96,000.

There are three key drivers behind the market decline. On the macro level, Japanese bond market sell-offs combined with the escalation of US tariffs have caused the Nasdaq to fall 2%. As a high-beta asset, BTC has come under obvious pressure, and the safe-haven narrative has lost its support. In terms of capital flow, institutional ETF net inflows can no longer withstand the short-term speculative capital outflows, and retail investor sentiment has cooled, further reducing leverage. Industry-wise, hash rate has declined for 60 consecutive days but the decline has narrowed. The mining difficulty is expected to be reduced by 4% tomorrow, which may ease selling pressure.

Predictions for the near future include: an optimistic scenario where the price stabilizes above $91,500 with increased volume, targeting $93,000 but cautioning about selling pressure at $92,000; a neutral scenario where the price oscillates between $90,000 and $92,000, waiting for clearer signals; and a pessimistic scenario where a breakdown below $90,000 support leads to further testing of the strong support at $88,000.

In terms of trading strategy, short-term traders should avoid blindly bottom-fishing. They should wait for confirmation signals such as MACD golden cross, stabilization above the MA10, and increased volume before entering. Position holders need to closely monitor the $90,000 key level; if broken, they should reduce positions and cut losses promptly. At resistance levels, small short positions can be attempted with a stop-loss set above $93,500. Long-term investors may consider opportunities in the $88,000-$90,000 range, based on mining difficulty signals indicating a potential bottoming out.