Gold breaks through $4,870 to reach a new high, the logic behind the rising risk aversion sentiment

Gold futures rose above $4,870 per ounce on January 21, 2026, with an intraday increase of 2.24%. This price level once again sets a new historical high, reflecting the continued intensification of market risk aversion sentiment. Against the backdrop of increasing global economic uncertainty, gold’s appeal as a traditional safe-haven asset continues to strengthen.

Significance of the Price Breakthrough in the Market

Confirmation of the All-Time High

The price level of $4,870 per ounce represents a strong performance of gold in early 2026. This breakout indicates investors’ cautious attitude towards risk assets and their ongoing pursuit of traditional safe-haven assets. Compared to the same period last year, the sustained rise in gold prices suggests that market concerns about economic prospects have not diminished.

Drivers of the Intraday Increase

Although a 2.24% intraday gain may seem moderate, it is considered significant volatility in the gold market. This increase is typically driven by the following factors:

• Weakening of the US dollar index, boosting the appeal of gold priced in dollars
• Adjustments in global central bank policy expectations, affecting real interest rates
• Changes in geopolitical situations, strengthening safe-haven demand
• Fluctuations in stock markets or other risk assets, triggering reallocation of funds

Market Context Analysis

Rotation of Safe-Haven Assets

The continued rise in gold often accompanies investors’ reassessment of other asset classes. When high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies experience increased volatility, traditional safe-haven assets tend to attract more attention. This asset rotation reflects the dynamic balance of market participants’ risk preferences.

Continuation of Long-Term Trends

Looking at gold’s performance from 2025, a clear upward trend has been established. The ongoing increase in early 2026 indicates that this trend is still in effect, suggesting that market expectations for economic growth remain cautious.

Future Focus Areas

Based on current market performance, the following directions merit ongoing observation:

• The impact of Federal Reserve policy movements on gold prices
• The influence of global economic data releases on risk aversion sentiment
• The performance linkage of other safe-haven assets (such as US Treasuries)
• The technical significance of the $5,000 per ounce threshold

Summary

The breakthrough above $4,870 per ounce reflects an intensification of market risk aversion and cautious attitudes toward economic prospects. This is not just a price figure but a barometer of changes in investors’ risk preferences. Amid ongoing global economic uncertainties, the allocation value of traditional safe-haven assets is being reaffirmed by the market. Whether gold can continue to rise depends critically on the evolution of macroeconomic conditions and central bank policy expectations.