#比特币价格走势 Seeing the data from Polymarket, the probability of reaching 100,000 in January has risen to 38%. I have to be honest—this probability doesn’t seem very credible to me. What’s truly worth paying attention to is the warning from Santiment: retail investor sentiment is so exuberant at the start of the year, which is often a contrarian indicator.

I’ve been following the market for seven or eight years, and the worst situation is when market sentiment becomes overly optimistic—social media is full of "rise, rise, rise" messages—then once Bitcoin quickly surges to 92,000, FOMO will flood in on a large scale. History shows that retail investors’ collective madness usually occurs near cycle highs.

From a copy-trading perspective, it’s crucial now to pay close attention to the stop-loss settings of the traders you follow. If you’re following aggressive traders, they might be aggressively adding positions in the 92,000-95,000 range. At this point, ask yourself: can your risk tolerance really keep up? My advice is that at this stage, you might consider reducing your copy-trading proportion or switching to more conservative traders who have strict stop-loss discipline.

The combined probability of a drop to 85,000 and 80,000 is 62%. Instead of chasing the high, it’s better to wait for an entry point after a correction. The cruelest part of the market is this— you can never capture the entire upside, but you must avoid large-scale retracements.