#比特币价格走势 VanEck's outlook provides an interesting reference framework. The core logic can be summarized as follows: in the last cycle, BTC dropped 80%, but volatility was halved. This time, the expected decline has been reduced to around 40%, with 35% already digested—indicating that the downside potential is indeed limited.

From an on-chain data perspective, key observation points are the resetting of leverage and signs of improvement in on-chain activity. These two signals directly impact the sustainability of subsequent rebounds. The four-year cycle remains valid, peaking in October 2025, which means the probability of consolidation in 2026 is indeed higher—not just sideways movement, but repeated confirmation within a certain range.

The background of global liquidity divergence is also worth noting: rate cut expectations are bullish, but tightening US liquidity acts as a hedge. In this environment, a dollar-cost averaging strategy combined with tactical position adjustments is relatively prudent—buying during liquidations, reducing positions when speculation overheats. Essentially, it’s about using discipline to counteract emotional volatility.

If on-chain activity continues to improve and leverage has been cleared, there should be an opportunity to see clearer directional judgments in the first half of 2026. Currently, it’s necessary to keep tracking whale movements and changes in capital flows.