Gold prices soar to $4,700 per ounce: A rush to safe havens amid trade war concerns

Gold is experiencing a historic bull market. As of January 21, 2026, the Gate precious metals contract market remains active, with the XAU contract price at $4,815.43, up 3.16% over the past 24 hours. This wave of gold price increases is not an isolated phenomenon; analysts from the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) predict that in 2026, gold prices may range between $3,900 and $5,800, with an average price estimated at $5,100.

Gold Bullish Trend

The precious metals market is undergoing an unprecedented rally. Spot gold prices continue to climb, reaching a historic high of $4,836.55 per ounce. Market data shows that the XAU contract price on the Gate platform is currently $4,815.43, with a single-day increase of 3.16%. This is one of the strongest performances of gold since 1979.

The silver market is also performing strongly, with the XAG contract reaching $95.08, up 1.64% in 24 hours. Overall activity in the precious metals market has reached new heights, with significantly increased daily trading volume, reflecting strong investor interest in precious metals.

Bull Market Drivers

Multiple factors are working together behind the surge in gold prices. Escalating global trade tensions have become a key driver, especially with the Trump administration’s threats to impose tariffs on multiple countries and regions, reigniting concerns over a “trade war.”

Central bank holdings continue to support the gold market. As of June 2025, gold accounted for approximately 21.4% of reserve assets; if it returns to the historical median level of 34%, the trend of global central banks increasing gold holdings could continue until 2035.

The monetary policy environment also favors gold. The Federal Reserve has initiated a new cycle of rate cuts, with three consecutive reductions, and the decline in real interest rates reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Institutional Outlook Analysis

Major global financial institutions are uniformly optimistic about the future of gold. Huatai Securities’ latest research report predicts that in 2026, with declining U.S. real interest rates and a weakening dollar, gold prices could rise above $4,800 per ounce.

Goldman Sachs expects that by the end of 2026, gold prices will rise to approximately $4,900 per ounce. J.P. Morgan’s forecast is even more bullish, expecting gold prices in Q4 2026 to reach $5,055 per ounce, with potential further upward movement toward $6,000 per ounce.

DBS Bank points out that the long-term bull market trend for gold remains solid, setting a target price of $5,100 per ounce for the second half of 2026. Their model predicts that based on long-term assumptions such as global nominal GDP growth, gold prices could even reach $6,600 per ounce by 2030.

Precious Metals Trading Strategies

On the Gate platform, investors can participate in the precious metals market through various methods. Gate offers XAUT contracts backed by physical gold, with each contract representing one ounce of physical gold stored in a Swiss vault. For investors seeking to hedge market risks with precious metals, a “long-term core position + dynamic trading” strategy is worth considering. This approach suggests strategically holding a core position of 5%-10% long-term, while tactically capturing swing opportunities.

Technical analysis is an important tool in precious metals trading. On the Gate trading interface, investors can use candlestick charts, MACD, RSI, and other technical indicators to identify support and resistance levels. Arbitrage strategies based on statistical models are also worth noting, as they can generate stable returns.

Market Risk Management

Risk management in gold trading is crucial, especially in the current environment of increased market volatility. Leverage is a core feature of perpetual contract trading and must be used cautiously.

Controlling position size is the first line of defense in risk management. It is recommended that risk exposure per trade does not exceed 1-2% of total account funds. Strictly implementing stop-loss strategies is equally important. Whether it’s fixed percentage stops, technical stops, or volatility stops, discipline in execution is key to avoiding emotional interference that might lead to adjusting stop-loss levels.

On the Gate platform, traders can use isolated margin mode to segregate risks across different positions, and diversify risk by trading a portfolio of different precious metals.

The gold market has entered a new historical phase; breaking through $4,700 per ounce is just the beginning of a new chapter. The proportion of central bank gold reserves compared to the historical median still has about a 12.6% room for increase, indicating that central bank gold buying demand could continue until 2035. Daily trading volume of precious metal contracts has already reached hundreds of millions of dollars, with individual investors and traditional institutions jointly participating in this historic market evolution through digital means. As the Federal Reserve’s rate cut cycle continues and global debt levels expand, gold’s importance as a store of value will only become more prominent.