#预测市场交易行为 The prediction market story is quite interesting. A trader used just over $30,000 on Polymarket to bet on Maduro's resignation, and within just 24 hours, he earned over $400,000 — there's nothing wrong with the trade itself, but the issue is that his trading happened hours before Trump's official announcement. US lawmakers are now proposing legislation to ban officials with non-public information from trading in prediction markets, which effectively draws a red line for insider trading.

My view is: prediction markets are a good interactive scenario in themselves, but increasingly strict rules mean the window of opportunity is closing. For us, the key is to identify what compliant participation spaces still exist before policies tighten — for example, ordinary users' reasonable trades are fully permitted, but don’t try to exploit information asymmetry for hard manipulation.

I recommend focusing on prediction interactions that are fully decentralized and user-driven, avoiding contracts involving politically sensitive topics. As rules tighten, it’s actually a good time to clean up the wild growth, and the remaining opportunities become more valuable. Keep an eye on new project interaction spaces — there are always corners that the mainstream hasn’t covered yet.