#Polymarket预测市场内幕交易 Seeing the incident with Polymarket, I feel complicated. Over twenty years of market experience, I’ve seen many "bright moments" in different cycles, but this time feels different—it has pushed prediction markets from a story of technological innovation straight into the abyss of political risk.

The trader’s logic is actually quite clear: a bet of $32,500 with a profit of over $400,000, yielding a 1200% return. In a bear market, this is a dream number; in this scenario, it’s a warning bell. The key isn’t the return itself but the level of information asymmetry—news of Maduro’s arrest reflected in the contract prices hours before the official announcement. What does this indicate? A break in some part of the information chain.

I’ve seen too many emerging markets distorted due to lack of regulation. The derivatives market before 2008 was dazzling, but it became very messy later. Prediction markets are originally an interesting idea—using dispersed information and incentive mechanisms to improve forecast accuracy. But if the participants are not equal, and some hold significant non-public information, it turns into clandestine trading in a casino.

Congressman Torres plans to legislate to ban federal officials from participating in political prediction markets. Logically, that makes sense, but the execution is problematic. Blockchain account anonymity makes tracking a cat-and-mouse game, and fund routing can become extremely complex—from Coinbase’s 252 SOL to the domain STVLU.SOL, and to Witkoff’s connections, each layer adds ambiguity.

History will repeat itself. I’ve seen over-the-counter markets being co-opted due to information advantages, and futures markets tightening due to manipulation. If prediction markets are not proactively regulated, regulation will come in a more violent form. Kalshi’s response was elegant—they said they’ve already banned insider trading—but that’s like saying "we have compliance departments"—rules on paper and enforcement are always a distance apart.

The real issue is: in an era where on-chain trading is anonymous and cross-border flows are unrestricted, relying on traditional identity verification to create information barriers is fundamentally using outdated tools to address new problems. It’s not a technical issue but a systemic design flaw.

What’s next depends on whether this industry chooses to evolve itself or waits to be forcibly reformed by the government. My experience tells me that waiting for reform always comes at a higher cost.