#预测市场交易行为 Seeing Coinbase's 2026 outlook report, I can't help but think back to the ICO boom of 2017. At that time, everyone was telling stories, sharing visions, and talking about changing the world. But what happened? Most projects were just fleeting moments, leaving behind countless trapped retail investors and a mess of token economic models.

Nearly ten years later, the discussions around DAT and Tokenomics 2.0 reveal some fundamental shifts. It’s no longer about vague dreams of ecosystem building but about tangible profit-sharing mechanisms—fee sharing, buybacks, and token burns. This means tokens are no longer just fundraising tools or speculative assets but are backed by real cash flows. This is a sign of maturity.

Forecasts suggest market trading volume could expand to tens of billions of dollars weekly, reminding me of the DeFi summer of 2020. Back then, everyone believed DEXs would dominate, but liquidity fragmentation and poor user experience issues never truly got resolved. Now, Coinbase’s proposal of "aggregators becoming the dominant interface layer" is, in a way, a reflection on past lessons—just because a track is hot doesn’t mean decentralization is the right approach.

Honestly, I remain cautious about these predictions. History shows that at each cycle peak, institutional optimism tends to be inversely proportional. Coinbase says the first half of 2026 will resemble 1996 more than 1999—I take that seriously. There were three more years of growth after 1996, but after 1999? The bubble burst was inevitable.

The key still depends on whether policy frameworks can truly stabilize. Only when rules are clear can these new token economic mechanisms really take effect. Otherwise, no matter how beautiful the models are, they’re just paper theories.