Bitcoin rebound signals vs. selling pressure dilemma: Can the $100,000 barrier be broken?

Bitcoin has recently exhibited an interesting contradiction during its pullback: technical indicators frequently signal a rebound, yet on-chain data shows long-term holders accelerating their sell-off. This “signal vs. pressure” confrontation determines whether Bitcoin can truly launch an assault on the $100,000 mark.

Technical rebound signals are indeed present

According to the latest news, Bitcoin has shown a hidden bullish divergence on the 12-hour chart, which is a relatively positive sign. Specifically, the price has formed higher lows, while the RSI indicator has made lower lows, indicating weakening selling pressure. This divergence in momentum often foreshadows an imminent rebound.

More importantly, insights from historical fractals suggest that since mid-2025, every time Bitcoin retraced and regained the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, it experienced a rally of over 10%. This historical pattern remains relevant today. As of January 21, BTC has fallen below these two key moving averages, and once it re-establishes support, the fractal rebound could be activated.

Key price level confirmation logic

From a technical perspective, several price levels are critical:

On-chain data: a contradictory story

However, a key contradiction emerges: on-chain data shows selling pressure is far more complex than it appears.

Whale addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC remain stable or have slightly increased, indicating large holders are not panicking and selling off. Meanwhile, mid-term holders with over 155 days of holding are absorbing coins, with their BTC balances increasing by over 60% during the weak price period. These are positive signals.

But the issue lies with another group: ultra-long-term holders with over a year of holding have accelerated their selling after mid-January. These are often early investors or institutions, and their selling volume has more than doubled within a week. This becomes a major resistance to a quick short-term rebound.

How to interpret this confrontation?

• Mid-term holders are building positions, indicating confidence in the future
• Ultra-long-term holders are reducing their holdings, possibly taking profits or pessimistic about recent trends
• The stable behavior of whales reflects cautious but not panicked institutional investors

This multi-force confrontation suggests that a rebound is not guaranteed and requires technical confirmation.

Current price status and the distance to $100,000

According to data, BTC is currently priced at $89,475.99. Compared to the recent decline, the price has stabilized somewhat. There is about $10,525 of room to reach $100,000, which is technically achievable.

The key point is that once Bitcoin re-establishes support at $94,390—the EMA confirmation point—the historical fractal pattern of a 10% rise could be triggered. A 10% increase from $94,390 would bring it close to $104,000, making the psychological barrier of $100,000 no longer distant.

Key points to watch in the future

The next few days will be crucial, focusing on two scenarios:

Bullish scenario: If BTC can regain support at $94,390 and hold above the daily close, the EMA rebound will be confirmed, the fractal rally logic will activate, and $100,000 will come back into reach.

Bearish scenario: If it falls below $87,830, it could test support around $84,350, weakening the fractal rebound logic and pushing back the target of $100,000.

It’s worth noting that institutions like MicroStrategy continue to accumulate Bitcoin, which from another perspective indicates that market confidence in the long-term outlook remains intact.

Summary

Bitcoin is currently facing a “signal vs. pressure” confrontation. Technical rebound signals are indeed present, and historical fractal patterns offer reference points, but the selling pressure from ultra-long-term holders cannot be ignored. There is still a chance to reach $100,000, but it’s not guaranteed.

The key is whether Bitcoin can break above the $94,390 EMA confirmation point. If it can hold steady, the fractal rebound will be triggered, and $100,000 will become a realistic target again. Conversely, failure to do so may mean preparing for further downside. For short-term traders, the momentum and price action in the coming days will determine the success or failure of this rebound cycle.