XRP price falls below $2, but Ripple outlines four major shifts in crypto finance by 2026

January 21, Ripple President Monica Long released the latest report, offering the most optimistic forecast to date for the cryptocurrency outlook in 2026. Although the price of XRP fell about 3% on Wednesday and briefly dropped below the $2 mark, Long’s perspective points to a broader narrative: the global financial system is moving from the “experimental stage” of blockchain to the “production era.” The core logic behind this is that institutional adoption will become the main theme over the next two years, rather than retail speculation.

Stablecoins: From Payment Tools to Settlement Infrastructure

Monica Long believes that stablecoins will be the first to undergo a qualitative change. According to her report, payment networks including Visa and Stripe have begun integrating digital dollars directly into existing systems. This is not a proof of concept but real commercial activity.

The most convincing data: the annualized scale of B2B stablecoin payments has reached approximately $76 billion, nearly explosive growth compared to early 2023. What does this mean? A large number of enterprises are achieving higher efficiency in working capital turnover through blockchain, and B2B scenarios have become the main engine of stablecoin growth.

The significance of this shift is that stablecoins are no longer just trading pairs on exchanges but are beginning to serve as the infrastructure for cross-border payments and corporate settlements.

Institutional Adoption: From 1% ETF Penetration to 50% Fortune 500

Long predicts that by 2026, about 50% of Fortune 500 companies will hold crypto assets or have formal digital asset financial strategies. This is a qualitative leap.

Currently, the penetration rate of crypto ETFs remains low at 1% to 2%. What does this imply? There is still vast room for institutional capital to enter. From the current situation, most traditional financial institutions’ understanding of crypto assets is still in the experimental stage, and large-scale allocations have not yet begun.

Long emphasizes that cryptocurrencies are no longer just speculative assets but are the foundation for corporate finance, tokenized assets, on-chain treasuries, and programmable finance. This shift in positioning is crucial; it means institutions need crypto assets not for profit-seeking but for operational purposes.

Capital Markets and Custody: Expansion of On-Chain Settlement and Digital Transformation of Banks

Long forecasts that in the coming years, 5% to 10% of global settlement activities will migrate on-chain. Meanwhile, crypto asset custody will undergo a new round of consolidation.

Specifically, she expects that by 2026, more than half of the top 50 global banks will establish new digital asset custody relationships to meet the demands of tokenization and stablecoin collateralization. This reflects that traditional financial institutions can no longer ignore digital assets but must proactively develop related capabilities.

Supporting this view, recent regulatory progress by Ripple reinforces this judgment. It has obtained an Electronic Money Institution (EMI) license in Luxembourg and holds over 75 global licenses. These developments are tightening institutional supply, leading to XRP balances on exchanges dropping to historic lows. These infrastructure developments are paving the way for large-scale institutional adoption.

Blockchain and AI Integration: A New Stage for Programmable Finance

Long is also optimistic about the integration of blockchain and artificial intelligence, enabling real-time fund management and risk assessment through smart contracts, zero-knowledge proofs, and AI models. This represents a more advanced direction involving automation and intelligence in financial processes.

Short-term Dislocation and Long-term Opportunities

An interesting phenomenon has emerged: despite these medium- and long-term positive prospects, XRP’s short-term price remains under pressure. According to recent data, XRP is trading at $1.91 with a market cap of $11.628 billion. Recently, due to policy uncertainties related to Trump and delays in discussions of the CLARITY Act, the overall crypto market has declined, and XRP futures open interest has decreased by about 9% within 24 hours.

This reflects a clear disconnect between market sentiment and infrastructure development. Retail and short-term traders focus on policy risks and macro volatility, while institutions and strategic planners focus on long-term adoption pathways and infrastructure building.

Summary

Monica Long’s four major predictions sketch a vision: by 2026, crypto finance will not be about soaring coin prices but about systemic upgrades—stablecoins evolving from payment tools to settlement infrastructure, institutions shifting from spectators to participants, and traditional finance transforming from resistors to builders.

From this perspective, the short-term price pressure on XRP may just be consolidation, while the long-term fundamentals are gradually being solidified. The key is whether investors can distinguish between short-term market sentiment and long-term infrastructure development.