#数字资产市场动态 Inflation is something the Federal Reserve can't escape from either.

When they started cutting interest rates in September last year, the 30-year Treasury yield was still below 4%. In the blink of an eye, they cut 175 basis points, and the yield instead surged above 4.9%—this is awkward.

On the surface, it seems like the Fed has tamed the beast of inflation. But the reality isn't that simple. Although the labor market has cooled down (unemployment rate at 4.4%), wage growth is still at 3.5%. Plus, rent accounts for a full 40% of the CPI, making core inflation like an unquenchable wildfire that keeps flaring up.

Currently, market expectations are that inflation will remain around 2.5% in 2026, which forces the Fed to step on the brakes—slowing down the pace of rate cuts, and long-term yields are soaring along with it.

The most painful part is that if tariffs are adjusted or supply chain disruptions occur again, inflation could flare up again. The Fed might be pushed back to a neutral stance or even to rate hikes, and yield volatility will be amplified even more. Short-term rates are easier to manage, but long-term yields are more affected by market sentiment and fiscal policy.