#地缘政治与资本流动 Venezuela's recent geopolitical events are essentially a market stress test. Yesterday afternoon, news of explosions in Caracas came out, and my first reaction was to look at the market chart—BTC indeed briefly dipped below 90,000, but the rebound was unexpectedly quick. What does this indicate? It shows that the market had already digested this expectation.

The key point to observe here is: the US's actions against Venezuela are "planned" operations, not sudden black swan events. Several aggressive traders I follow actually increased their positions at this moment, and the logic is simple—known risks often do not cause real shocks. The ones that can really cause a crash are unforeseen variables that the market didn't anticipate.

The current question is: future macro variables like the OPEC meeting and Federal Reserve stance are the real determinants. Whether BTC can hold above the 21-day moving average is a critical point for my subsequent position adjustment strategy. Geopolitical hotspots can create volatility, but they won't change the overall direction—capital flows still depend on fundamentals and risk asset sentiment.

In the short term, I haven't adjusted my follow-up positions; instead, I'm waiting for clearer directional signals. This wave is just a roller coaster shake, not the end.