#预测市场交易行为 Institutions are starting to become wildly optimistic about the prediction market, and this signal is worth pondering. The outlooks from giants like BlackRock, Fidelity, and Coinbase for 2026 repeatedly mention the expansion of trading volume in the prediction market—this is not just casual talk—it indicates that capital is preparing for an explosion in this sector.

Recently, I’ve been observing several traders active in the prediction market space, and their trading logic is indeed evolving. The traditional short-term volatility trading approach is no longer sufficient; more people are beginning to position themselves based on institutional flows and policy expectations for the medium to long term. Behind this shift are certain events such as stablecoins approaching a market cap of 1.2 trillion and over 50 spot altcoin ETFs launching, which are driving these changes.

The key is to adjust the position sizing strategy. Experts focusing on prediction market concept trading tend to have a significantly higher risk appetite, with more aggressive stop-loss settings—because the volatility in this sector is inherently high. If you copy these traders, you need to understand that you are betting on the strength of a particular directional certainty, not simply copying their positions. My advice is to allocate about 10-15% of your total funds to follow such strategies, combined with a strict monthly review mechanism.

The four-year cycle divergence indicates that the market has not yet fully aligned expectations, which actually presents an opportunity—the information gap is right here. When institutional consensus truly forms, it will already be reflected in the price, and you’ll be a latecomer.