Smart money invests $3.2 billion in Bitcoin, retail investors panic sell, bottom signals appear

In the context of intense volatility in global risk assets, a noteworthy phenomenon has emerged in the Bitcoin market: large funds continue to accumulate, while retail investors are panic-selling. According to on-chain data from Santiment, over the past 9 days, wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC have collectively increased their holdings by 36,322 BTC (approximately $3.2 billion), whereas small addresses are collectively offloading. This divergence between “smart money” and retail investors is becoming a focal point of market attention.

The Contradiction Between Whales and Retail Investors

Based on Santiment’s on-chain statistics, capital flows show a clear polarization:

These 36,322 BTC, valued at the current price of $89,632, amount to roughly $3.2 billion. Despite Bitcoin’s price temporarily dropping below $88,000, large funds are still accumulating against the trend. This behavior warrants in-depth analysis.

Why is this divergence so critical

In on-chain investment strategies, such divergence in capital structure often appears near bottom phases. When savvy investors keep buying while retail investors sell off, it typically signals two important cues:

• Emotional capitulation: Retail selling often stems from short-term panic and loss aversion rather than fundamental deterioration
• Institutional accumulation: The increased holdings by whales reflect recognition of long-term value; such institutional-grade capital usually has higher risk tolerance and longer investment horizons

Historically, this kind of capital divergence often indicates potential for subsequent upward recovery.

Maintaining Resolve Amid Macro Uncertainty

Currently, Bitcoin faces multiple pressures. Starting 2026, Bitcoin initially surged over 7%, but then retreated after Trump announced tariffs on several European countries, reintroducing risk aversion in global assets. BTC also pulled back, briefly falling below $88,000, and is now oscillating around $89,600.

In the short term, Bitcoin has declined 5.69% over the past 7 days and 1.38% in the last 24 hours, with market sentiment clearly under pressure. However, in such a stressful environment, whales are actually increasing their positions. This suggests that, despite geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties, the medium- to long-term bullish thesis for Bitcoin remains intact.

Signals from Institutional Funds

Beyond on-chain data divergence, other institutional movements are worth noting. According to recent reports, MicroStrategy has added 22,305 BTC for $2.13 billion, bringing its total holdings to 709,715 BTC. As one of the most aggressive corporate Bitcoin accumulators, MicroStrategy’s continued buying further confirms institutional confidence in Bitcoin.

Additionally, the U.S. Treasury’s announcement to incorporate seized Bitcoin into its digital asset reserves also reflects official recognition of Bitcoin’s strategic importance.

Possible Future Trends

Based on current on-chain capital behavior, several directions are worth monitoring:

• Short-term rebound potential: If this divergence persists, Bitcoin could find support around $89,000–$90,000, with a subsequent test of levels above $91,000
• Impact of macro shocks: Factors like Trump’s tariff policies, turmoil in Japanese bond markets, etc., could continue to pressure risk assets, but may also create more accumulation opportunities for whales
• Confirmation of technical divergence: If retail continues to sell while whales keep accumulating, this technical divergence will strengthen, laying the groundwork for a directional move

As long as this capital divergence persists, the market could trigger a new trend at any time.

Summary

The current Bitcoin market is witnessing a battle of capital: whales are signaling confidence with a $3.2 billion accumulation, while retail investors are fleeing in panic. Historically, such divergence often signals a bottom formation. Despite ongoing macro uncertainties, on-chain behavior shows that smart capital remains committed. For investors, key questions are whether this divergence can sustain and whether whale accumulation will ultimately drive prices higher. In a market cycle increasingly dominated by institutional players, following the smart money’s moves often proves more valuable than chasing sentiment.