How will this wave of BTC market move? I want to discuss it from an interesting perspective.

The key point is to observe the trader sentiment temperature. The method is simple—watch the changes in follow-up data of top traders. During the previous drop from 94,000 to 89,000, the number of followers decreased to over 700. But this time, from 97,900 directly down to 88,000, the follower count didn't decrease much. What does this indicate? The bulls are still quite confident.

From a technical perspective, there will indeed be a lot of short positions liquidated around 96,000—that's a matter of technicals. But from a philosophical standpoint, the current bullish sentiment and buying pressure are actually quite good. So even if there are liquidations, the market could continue to drop—this resembles the rhythm of a third wave in a major decline.

Regarding the rebound magnitude, here are a few possible scenarios:

First, in the short term, a rebound from 88,000 to around 91,800 or 93,000, based on 0.382 or 0.5 retracement levels.

Second, if the trend resembles the one in 2022, there is theoretically a possibility of reaching 100,000. But I tend to dismiss this expectation—this wave looks more like the pattern of 2018, with a much stronger downward force than in 2022. There's no need to push back to 100,000 because the move to 97,900 already solidified the bulls' confidence, making liquidation and exit less likely.

From a larger cycle perspective, the four-year cycle framework is still in operation, and the major bottom is expected around early October this year. I rate the accuracy of this judgment at over 90%. Based on this logic, long-term trading is the most practical.

Honestly, why do I think I can precisely catch short-term moves? So I simply avoid short-term trading. The real profit opportunities are in daily chart long-term positions or major waves.