If you are the main force behind this RIVER market wave, the upcoming tactics will most likely follow this pattern.

**First Move: Positioning and Testing Pressure, Clarifying the Bottom Line**

Seeing the 39.7 level repeatedly touched but not broken, the first move is definitely a test. Small amounts of funds will attempt to push through this barrier, with the simple goal of—figuring out how much buying power the market really has.

If the breakthrough goes smoothly, it indicates strong buying interest. At this point, the main force will leverage this momentum to continue pushing upward, with a target possibly in the 40-42 range. As long as they create a narrative of "finally breaking through," retail investors' buy-in orders will pour in continuously. But reality usually doesn’t follow this script.

A more likely scenario is encountering heavy selling pressure around 39.7—due to profit-taking from other holders and some of the main force’s own chips being sold. Price is likely to fall back. At this moment, the main force will defend the key support at 37-38, creating an illusion of "not falling further." The result is being trapped in a high-range box between 37-39.5, oscillating repeatedly.

**Second Move: Trading Within the Range, Each Rise Is a Distribution**

The real harvesting begins here. Within the 37-39.5 oscillation zone, the main force starts playing "left hand, right hand." They quickly push up near the lower boundary of 37 with small funds to fake a breakout, attracting retail follow-up; then they hit larger sell orders or open short positions near the upper boundary of 39.5 to hedge. Each oscillation is a controlled distribution process.

Coupled with some positive news and big influencers shouting buy signals, market enthusiasm remains high. Retail investors believe the price can go higher, so each "rise" attracts new buyers. Data shows that although occasional screenshots of "whale buying" appear, these are just smoke screens. The truth is, the overall trend is slowly net selling; the apparent high bid-ask ratio is superficial, gradually drifting downward in the background.

**Third Move: Recognizing the Late Stage of Distribution and Setting the Final Trap**

As distribution reaches its late stage, cracks begin to show. Trading volume gradually shrinks from initial massive levels, and the center of oscillation quietly shifts downward—for example, from the 38-39.5 range down to 36-38. Technical indicators show bearish divergence and then a death cross, which are clear signals.

The final step may involve a "false breakout"—a quick surge to break the previous high of 39.7, even pushing to new highs like 41, exciting retail investors to rush in. Then, the main force dumps the remaining chips all at once, completely abandoning the support.

After distribution completes, RIVER’s price loses main support and quickly falls below all short-term moving averages and key support levels (such as 35), entering a true downtrend. At this point, the main force’s goal shifts from "offloading" to "quietly re-accumulating at lower levels," preparing for the next cycle.

This entire logic sounds complex, but the core is: fully exploiting retail investors’ chase-buy psychology and technical illusions, using carefully designed range oscillations and fake breakouts to quietly transfer chips to the market.