Recently, I have been paying attention to the trends of several mainstream cryptocurrencies—DOGE, SUI, XRP—all of which are experiencing fluctuations. But what’s more worth pondering is the macro environment behind them.

Japanese government bond yields have been soaring wildly lately, continuously hitting record highs, with the trend closely aligned with gold. The local market now exemplifies a typical "high city trading" model: fiscal spending continues, the central bank is reluctant to raise interest rates significantly, stock markets are rising, but bonds and the yen are falling simultaneously.

In simple terms, the Japanese government’s finances have become extremely strained. Most of the debt now is old debt accumulated ten or twenty years ago. If interest rates are forced up to 5%, it will be the end—all tax revenue will have to go toward debt repayment, with no other options.

Even more terrifying is that this situation has fallen into a vicious cycle: aggressive fiscal policy → market begins to worry about debt risk → government bond yields rise → the central bank faces greater difficulties → inflation expectations increase → yields continue to rise → debt risk worsens. One link after another, where will this spiral ultimately lead? The exchange rate still has room to decline. A currency of a developed country continuously depreciating in such an environment inevitably brings to mind those extreme scenarios.