Recently, the global financial markets have been turbulent. The Bank of Japan may act proactively, and internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve are intensifying. These signals are reshaping the flow of funds. As members of the crypto community, we need to understand the underlying logic.

First, let's look at the situation on the central bank side. The Japanese market is betting on a rate hike in July, but there are voices suggesting that preparations for an earlier move in April are already underway. Under the dual pressures of inflation and yen depreciation, any statement from the governor could trigger sharp fluctuations in global liquidity expectations. This is no small matter because liquidity directly affects where funds flow.

The Federal Reserve's role is also significant. Three dovish members are pushing for rate cuts, but current inflation data (CPI 2.7%) and the balancing power of hawkish forces make the "rate cut window" uncertain. More complicated is that Trump’s policies may conflict with legal regulations, adding uncertainty to the market. Interest rate policies have never been a game decided by one person.

Interestingly, looking at the monthly performance of gold and silver, you'll find that traditional assets have recently been attracting massive inflows. This might explain why the crypto market has been somewhat weak lately. Funds are seeking a balance between traditional finance and emerging assets. When traditional markets reach a certain level of euphoria, where is the next opportunity? This is a question worth pondering.

So, how should the crypto community respond? A few key points to remember:

**About Bitcoin**: The overall direction remains unchanged, and the target is still promising. But the key is to hold the spot assets and avoid frequent trading; a laid-back mindset is crucial. Short-term fluctuations do not alter the long-term logic.

**About Altcoin Season**: Altcoin season will indeed come, but it’s a high-risk game. 90% of meme coins are traps, and only a few will survive. If you participate, consider projects with real application backgrounds or community support.

**About Newcomer Entry**: Stay away from contract trading. Use only the money you can afford to lose to trade spot assets; this is the most prudent approach. High leverage is gambling, not investing.

**About Ecosystem Allocation**: Assets related to exchange ecosystems should be stable. Don’t expect to get rich quickly; the value of ecosystem projects will be realized in the medium to long term.

**The core strategy is actually simple**: Hold the core Bitcoin position, stay alert but cautious about altcoins, and absolutely avoid high-leverage contracts.

But here’s a question we must face: Will the bull market really continue like this? Has the shadow of the bear market truly lifted? Is this turbulence in traditional finance a "stress test" for the crypto market, or the "fuse" for the next wave of market rallies? When will the pendulum of capital rotation swing back? There are no definitive answers.

The only certainty is that the market is changing, opportunities are changing, and risks are changing. Be prepared defensively, and don’t expect to get rich overnight—that’s the secret to long-term survival. What are your thoughts on this financial upheaval? Feel free to share your ideas.