#Polymarket预测市场内幕交易 I just broke down 27,000 trades of the top whales on Polymarket, gaining some cold insights.

On the surface, those leaderboard win rates look dazzling, but what’s truly worth studying is precisely what noise obscures—the logic behind top players repeatedly betting with real money. Behind these 27,000 trades isn’t some mysterious prediction technique, but a keen sense of market information gaps and strict stop-loss discipline.

The most eye-opening discovery is: high win rates are often the result of survivor bias. Those big players who seem consistently profitable have long eliminated their most aggressive trading styles; only the more cautious versions survive after market beating. In other words, the successful cases you see are their ultimate forms after paying tuition.

What does this imply for copy trading? Don’t just focus on a single trader’s win rate fluctuations; pay attention to their position management and emotional stability during extreme market conditions. An experienced trader who has survived multiple margin calls is much more reliable than a newcomer who’s been riding smooth. Practice makes perfect—markets are always teaching us how to survive.