#地缘政治与资本流动 Seeing the news that Venezuela has a Bitcoin reserve of 60 billion USD, my first reaction isn't excitement but caution.

The underlying logic behind this is worth pondering: a sanctioned country, through gold swaps and oil settlements, has quietly accumulated over 600,000 BTC over 8 years. From buying Bitcoin at an average price of $5,000 in 2018 to now being worth 45-50 billion USD, it seems like a huge win— but the problem is, the flow of these reserves could change the entire market landscape.

The most dangerous part isn't Maduro's fall itself, but the liquidity issue of this 60 billion USD. If these Bitcoins enter the market—whether seized by the US government, sold by the new regime, or moved through other channels—it could cause massive price shocks. History has shown that large sell-offs often become the best tools for "harvesting" retail investors.

The losses I suffered early on included being hunted by this "invisible hand." Geopolitical shifts and sudden capital flow reversals are more deadly than project teams running away. So now, whenever I see any positive news, I ask: who is selling? to whom? when? These hidden truths are often more important than the headlines.

Stay vigilant, not out of pessimism, but as a necessary lesson for longer survival.