MegaETH goes live on the mainnet tomorrow: 11 billion transactions completed in 7 days, can it break the EVM ceiling?

EVM high-performance track adds another “powerful player.” MegaETH announces that tomorrow (January 22) it will launch a mainnet stress test. This is not just a simple performance demonstration but aims to process 11 billion transactions over 7 days in an environment with real users and applications running concurrently, maintaining a stable TPS of 15,000 to 35,000. According to market expectations, the success or failure of this test will directly impact MegaETH’s ability to secure a position in the high-performance public chain competition.

From Laboratory to the Real Battlefield

MegaETH’s performance metrics look impressive on paper. According to Messari’s research report, the block time on MegaETH’s testnet has reached 10 milliseconds, significantly faster than current mainstream blockchains. This means on-chain interactions nearly match Web2 response speeds, enabling high-frequency trading, blockchain games, and real-time applications.

However, the significance of this stress test lies in proving that these metrics can be maintained in a real environment. During the test, MegaETH not only opens its mainnet to users but also runs latency-sensitive applications like Stomp.gg, Smasher.fun, and Crossy Fluffle in real conditions. Meanwhile, the backend continuously pushes ETH transfers and v3 AMM interactions via Kumbaya.xyz, simulating real on-chain load.

This “testing while operating” approach is more convincing than mere technical demonstrations. Users can directly perceive the application’s responsiveness rather than just looking at a polished performance report.

Direct Comparison with Solana

MegaETH’s previous tests have already approached a peak of nearly 47,000 TPS. This stress test aims for stable operation within the range of 15,000 to 35,000 TPS. This figure is in the same league as Solana’s performance metrics, forming a direct competitive relationship.

However, their technical routes differ. Solana is a native high-performance public chain, while MegaETH has chosen an EVM-compatible route. This means developers can directly deploy Ethereum ecosystem applications on MegaETH, reducing migration costs. This is a key differentiator.

Performance vs. Decentralization Trade-off

However, Messari also points out a critical trade-off for MegaETH: adopting a centralized ordering mechanism to improve performance. Theoretically, this introduces censorship risks and affects the chain’s decentralization.

This is a common challenge in the industry. Achieving both high performance and full decentralization is difficult; projects prioritize performance and user experience. From a practical perspective, this trade-off is acceptable, but from a philosophical standpoint, the long-term viability still needs further market validation.

Market Expectations

Funding data reflects the market’s optimism about MegaETH. In October 2025, MegaETH raised about $50 million through MEGA token sales. The round was oversubscribed within minutes, with a total grassroots funding close to $75 million.

Interestingly, market prediction data shows high expectations. On Polymarket, the probability of “MegaETH FDV exceeding $10 billion within one day of launch” is as high as 88%, and the probability of exceeding $20 billion is 41%. This indicates strong market anticipation for MegaETH’s mainnet launch, but also suggests that expectations are already priced in.

Key Points

The true significance of this stress test is not whether it can reach the target TPS but revolves around three questions:

First, can it maintain stability under real application concurrency? Impressive performance metrics are meaningless if they cannot be reliably maintained in real-world conditions—this is what users care about most.

Second, is an EVM-compatible high-performance solution more attractive than native high-performance public chains? If MegaETH can prove to be both fast and compatible, it will greatly enhance its appeal within the Ethereum ecosystem.

Third, can the market accept the risks associated with centralized ordering? This involves long-term trust issues that cannot be resolved in a single test.

Summary

MegaETH’s mainnet stress test is a significant examination in the EVM high-performance track. Judging by funding scale and market expectations, this project has already garnered considerable attention. Over the next 7 days, MegaETH needs to demonstrate with real data—whether 11 billion transactions can be processed smoothly, and whether the user experience truly approaches Web2 levels. These are the ultimate questions.

Regardless of the outcome, MegaETH is pushing the evolution of the EVM ecosystem toward higher performance, which is meaningful for the development of blockchain infrastructure. For investors, the real test will be the chain’s actual performance after launch—whether these expectations are justified.