#机构投资者入场 Fidelity's latest outlook report highlights two signals worth paying attention to.

First is the incremental demand side: the game theory logic behind reserve demand in multiple countries is valid. Once a major country takes the lead in including Bitcoin in its foreign exchange reserves, the pressure for other countries to follow suit will indeed increase. From a supply and demand perspective, the incremental scale of this institutional demand could surpass our current expectations. But the question is—how large is the current scale of institutional investors entering the market? On-chain data has not yet reflected obvious signs of whale concentration and accumulation; most activity still appears to be scattered institutional allocations.

Second is the risk point: the selling pressure particularly mentioned by Kuiper cannot be ignored. If a bear market occurs, these institutions might be forced to reduce their holdings, which could instead become a downward pressure. The four-year cycle still persists, indicating that the current price adjustment may still be part of a larger cycle, and should not be hastily judged as purely driven by institutional entry pushing prices higher.

My view is—focus should shift to on-chain contract data and whale wallet flows. If institutions are truly actively deploying, the frequency of large transfers to exchanges should decrease, and the concentration of holdings across addresses should increase. Currently, these indicators are not yet clear enough, suggesting that large-scale institutional entry may still be in the brewing stage. Caution is advised in the short term.