Pi unlock wave is coming: an average of 4.6 million PI floods in daily, can the price hold at $0.18?

January 21st, Pi Network is facing a “mechanical” supply pressure test. Over 4.6 million PI enter circulation daily, with a total release of 55.8 million by the end of January. This is not an emotional panic sell-off but a structural supply expansion. Against the backdrop of Bitcoin and mainstream altcoin corrections, Pi’s vulnerability is amplified, and the market remains highly cautious about its short-term trend.

Dual Pressure from Unlock Waves and Supply Structure

The core issue Pi faces is not on the demand side but on the supply side. According to the latest data, Pi’s daily unlock rate remains above 4.6 million, and this continuous mechanical release keeps potential buyers on the sidelines. Even if a short-term rebound occurs, it is difficult to form effective support.

More concerning is the on-chain and platform-side supply structure. About 419 million PI are still in a state that can enter the market at any time, meaning that once the price rebounds, selling pressure could be quickly released. This high liquidity supply combined with ongoing unlocking creates an additive effect, keeping Pi in a “seller-dominated” pattern for the long term.

Although Pi Network has recently upgraded its application and payment functions, the improvement in practicality has not yet translated into immediate demand absorption for the token. In other words, the supply-side pressure finds no hedge on the demand side.

Technical Breakdown of Key Support Levels

From a technical perspective, Pi has already broken below the previous key support at $0.20. According to the latest data, the current price is around $0.1817, down 4.54% in the past 24 hours and down 13.11% over the past 7 days. This price level is close to the historical low of $0.17.

From technical indicators, the situation is also not optimistic:

• The 20-day and 50-day EMAs remain in a downward arrangement, indicating a bearish trend
• MACD has broken below zero and continues to widen negative divergence
• RSI hovers near 30, approaching oversold territory but with weak rebound momentum

Under this configuration, buying is more defensive than proactive, which hampers sustained rebounds.

Short-term Trend Outlook

If the structural pressure persists, Pi may continue to seek new support around $0.15. Key observation points include:

• Whether the unlock rate slows down (current daily release of 4.6 million PI is unsustainable)
• Whether the liquid supply significantly decreases (when will the 419 million PI stockpile pressure ease)
• Whether on-chain demand can truly absorb the new tokens (whether practical upgrades translate into actual demand)

Any improvement in these three conditions could create opportunities for Pi to rebuild a bottom. But before that, January’s market performance appears more like a severe stress test of Pi Network’s long-term value.

Summary

Pi Network in January faces not just short-term volatility but structural supply pressure. The daily unlock of 4.6 million PI, the 419 million PI liquid supply, and technical breakdowns form a triple pressure. The current price stabilizes around $0.18, but this is more of a technical rebound than a trend reversal. Only when unlocks slow, supply pressure eases, and practical upgrades effectively convert into demand will Pi have a chance to break out of its current predicament. In the short term, the $0.1632–$0.1919 range will serve as an important support zone, with downside risks still present if broken.