Behind AXS's over 200% surge in January: Can the economic model adjustment support the revival of GameFi

From the Bottom of the Sell-off to a 200% Surge, AXS Creates the Strongest Rebound in the GameFi Sector in January

According to the latest news, Axie Infinity’s AXS token surged over 200% in January, briefly breaking through $2.4 and successfully returning to the levels before the sell-off in October last year. As of January 21, AXS is trading at $2.42, with a 7-day increase of 92.94%, a 30-day increase of 183.55%, and a single-day trading volume exceeding $1 billion, making it the most active gaming-related crypto asset of the day. This rally is particularly notable amid the still cautious sentiment in the global crypto market and has sparked discussions on whether GameFi is truly recovering.

The Triple Drivers Behind the Surge

Economic model adjustments are the most direct catalyst

The Axie Infinity team announced a significant reform of its economic system: converting the original AXS rewards into an application token called bAXS, which players can use within Axie Core and earn additional yields through staking. This design aims to improve token utility, curb inflation, and optimize the staking structure. Market reactions indicate that this reform quickly ignited investor enthusiasm and was seen as a crucial turning point after a prolonged period of stagnation.

Reflow of GameFi capital and liquidity push

In early 2026, the GameFi concept regained attention from investors, with some funds flowing back from other sectors into established IP projects. As the most well-known project in the GameFi space, Axie Infinity naturally became a top choice. Market data shows a significant increase in trading activity from Korea, with some funds willing to buy AXS at higher prices, pushing the price through key resistance levels.

Leverage effects in the derivatives market

According to the latest reports, AXS futures are now available on multiple platforms, including Aster DEX (up to 75x leverage), Raydium Perpetuals (10x leverage), and Opter (100x leverage). The opening of these futures markets has further amplified trading activity and attracted substantial leveraged capital.

Fundamental Contradictions Behind the Price Strength

This table reveals a key contradiction: the price is soaring, but the underlying fundamentals have not improved correspondingly. The growth of new users on the Ronin network remains sluggish, with weekly active addresses well below the peak levels of 2024, indicating that the “play-to-earn” model has yet to bring a real influx of users.

Hidden Risk Signals Behind the Rally

Increase in exchange deposits indicates potential selling pressure

On-chain data shows that as the price rises, the circulating supply of AXS also increases, suggesting more tokens are entering a potential sell-off state. Additionally, activity in exchange deposits from large addresses has significantly increased, implying that some early holders and big players are taking the opportunity to cash out. If buying momentum weakens, these holdings could quickly turn into selling pressure.

High leverage risks in the futures market

AXS futures open interest has reached multi-year highs, indicating that leveraged funds are heavily betting on the price. This not only amplifies short-term profit potential but also increases the risk of forced liquidations. Market data suggests that if the price pulls back, it could trigger large-scale long liquidations.

Resistance at key levels

Analysts identify key resistance levels at $3 and $3.50. These price points could become critical points for profit-taking, especially with large holders preparing to cash out.

Can This Rally Be Transformed into a Sustainable Uptrend?

From market sentiment, AXS’s recent surge is more driven by capital enthusiasm and sentiment rather than genuine fundamental improvement. While the economic model adjustment is a positive signal, for this rebound to be sustainable, two conditions must be met:

First, new applications like Axie Core need to attract real users, not just speculators. The growth data of new users on the Ronin network must show clear improvement, which is a key indicator to verify whether the “play-to-earn” model is truly recovering.

Second, the trend of increasing exchange deposits needs to reverse, indicating that holders have stronger confidence in the project’s prospects and are willing to hold long-term rather than cash out opportunistically.

Summary

The 200% surge of AXS results from the combined effects of economic model adjustments, capital reflow into GameFi, and leverage in derivatives markets. This rally demonstrates market optimism about project reforms but also exposes issues such as insufficient fundamental improvements, high leverage risks, and selling pressures. Whether this wave of GameFi enthusiasm can develop into a steady upward trend ultimately depends on whether user and application data can keep pace with current capital enthusiasm. Behind the exuberant sentiment, investors should remain cautious of the three hidden risk signals: increasing exchange deposits, high leverage in futures, and low new user growth.