Recent market movements have been quite significant in the past few days. Gold and silver repeatedly hit new highs, while Bitcoin has been falling. This is no coincidence — the entire risk asset sector is declining, and cryptocurrencies, as the most sensitive category within risk assets, are naturally experiencing sharper declines.

Careful analysis of this wave of adjustment reveals two unavoidable reasons.

**The tariff issue is not over yet.** The US-China trade friction is still in the first phase, and an important statement is expected tonight. No one knows exactly what will be said. If it involves sensitive topics like Greenland or further escalates the conflict, the US stock market will open very badly tonight. Additionally, Europe and the US are holding a summit on the 22nd to address tariff issues. If both sides adopt a tough stance, the consequences could be severe, similar to last February’s tariff war.

**Sudden collapse of Japanese bonds.** The Japanese bond market experienced a significant sell-off, and this shockwave propagated to the US bond market, forcing many institutions and hedge funds to close positions to cut losses. The risk aversion sentiment instantly intensified. You can see how scared the market is from the rise in precious metals.

**Ultimately, there is too much uncertainty.** Lack of clear expectations is even more frightening; any small change can trigger risk aversion. The smartest approach at such times is not to gamble but to wait patiently for a real opportunity before taking action.