Precious metals have recently made big moves. Gold broke through $4,700 per ounce, and silver also approached $94, both hitting new all-time highs. The surge of these two traditional safe-haven assets indicates what the market is hedging against—currency chaos and political risks. This old-school safe-haven logic still works pretty well.

In contrast, Bitcoin's performance seems a bit awkward. After a recent flash crash, the price has been hovering around $92,000, still some distance from the $100,000 mark. Both are driven by rising global uncertainty, so why are precious metals screaming while Bitcoin just isn't as strong?

This reflects a subtle shift in Bitcoin's role. The narrative that was popular in the crypto world—halving cycles, supply shocks, retail investor sentiment—has clearly lost some of its effectiveness. What has replaced it? Liquidity conditions, geopolitical games, and capital rotation among different assets. In other words, Bitcoin is no longer just a pure crypto play; it’s increasingly viewed as part of a global asset allocation.

Why has the four-year cycle theory failed? Simply put, Bitcoin has grown bigger. Its market cap is increasing, institutional investors are pouring in, and financial infrastructure like spot ETFs, custody services, and compliant exchanges are becoming more mature. These changes seem to be regulating Bitcoin, but essentially, they are transforming its market ecosystem. Traditional financial logic is starting to seep in, and the once self-driven boom-bust cycles of Bitcoin are gradually being overtaken by macro factors.

So, looking at Bitcoin's trend now, relying solely on on-chain data and internal crypto indicators isn’t enough. You need to pay attention to Federal Reserve liquidity policies, the latest geopolitical developments, and even compare its performance to traditional safe-havens like gold and silver. When precious metals hit new highs while Bitcoin is digesting volatility, it suggests that the market’s risk pricing for crypto assets may still be in a period of adjustment.

This macro-driven force is actually more critical for understanding Bitcoin’s trajectory over the next few months. The cycle theory might still have some reference value, but it’s definitely no longer decisive.