XRP Price Prediction 2026: $3 or $4, these four months are critical

Currently, XRP is priced at $1.91. Although it has declined over 10% in the past week, it still maintains a positive return since the beginning of the year. The market is full of expectations for the next four months, with multiple analysts providing forecasts. The consensus is that XRP is likely to trade within the $2 to $4 range, but whether it can break through $3 or even $4 depends on macroeconomic conditions, Bitcoin performance, and fundamental catalysts.

Consensus and Divergence Among Analysts

Analysts generally optimistic but with differing expectations

Analyst CORE Satoshi from X platform has provided a relatively clear forecast framework, believing that XRP could trade between $2 and $4 in the coming months. This outlook is defined as a “steady upward trend” rather than an extreme breakout, contingent on macroeconomic and crypto market sentiment gradually improving. If the price indeed reaches $4, it would double from current levels and set a new all-time high.

Other analysts’ views are broadly similar. Dr. Whale previously also predicted a $2 to $4 range, while more aggressive voices come from Rekt Fencer, founder of X DAO, who believes XRP could surge above $5 over a longer cycle.

AI models are more cautious

AI-based estimates show more caution. Grok believes that by May 2026, XRP is more likely to trade between $2.00 and $2.50, only challenging $3 if strong catalysts emerge. ChatGPT’s model is somewhat optimistic, suggesting a range of $2.20 to $3.40 in bullish market conditions, but mainly sideways in neutral scenarios.

This divergence reflects the market’s real situation: in the short term, XRP faces ongoing battles between bulls and bears, with a clear consolidation zone, but the upside potential remains open.

Key Variables for Achieving Targets

Bitcoin’s performance is the primary factor

An important variable is Bitcoin’s trend. CORE Satoshi predicts Bitcoin could rise to $130,000–$150,000 in the next few months. If this scenario occurs, capital often rotates into large-cap assets like XRP afterward. Historical cycles show XRP tends to follow Bitcoin’s strength, meaning a return above $2 and approaching $3 is realistic.

Currently, Bitcoin has retraced from a high of about $95,000 to around $92,000, but analysts see this as consolidation rather than a structural collapse.

Fundamentals are improving

Progress in regulatory aspects supports XRP. The company has obtained an Electronic Money Institution (EMI) license in Luxembourg and holds over 75 global licenses. These developments are tightening institutional supply, leading to XRP balances on exchanges dropping to historic lows—typical signals of supply shocks.

The XRP ETF has accumulated $1.52 billion in assets, representing 1.20% of the total token supply. Last week, digital asset investment products saw inflows of $2.17 billion (the largest weekly inflow since October 2025), with XRP receiving $69.5 million, indicating continued institutional interest.

Technical support is clear

From a technical perspective, XRP is currently holding key support around $2.00. Analysts note that the buy-driven spot market and positive funding rates may support price increases, with key resistance at $2.15–$2.32. This consolidation zone is building momentum for the next upward move.

Conditions for Reaching Different Price Targets

Necessary conditions to reach $3

• Bitcoin successfully breaks through $130,000, boosting overall market sentiment
• Macro environment eases (current uncertainties like tariffs dissipate)
• Ripple’s cross-border payment business makes significant progress
• XRP ETF funds continue to flow in

Additional catalysts needed to hit $4

• Bitcoin surges to $150,000, forming a strong bullish cycle
• Spot XRP ETF scales rapidly, attracting more institutional funds
• Major breakthroughs in institutional adoption (e.g., large financial institutions announcing XRP settlement)
• The overall crypto market enters a new bull cycle

Summary

XRP’s performance over the next four months will depend on multiple factors working together. In the short term, the market consensus is in the $2 to $3 range, implying a 15–57% upside from the current $1.91. Doubling to $4 requires stronger catalysts and a favorable overall market environment.

The current consolidation phase is not a negative signal but rather a process of building momentum for the next trend. The key factors are whether Bitcoin can rise as expected and whether Ripple’s fundamentals continue to improve. If these variables resonate, XRP’s upside potential will be further unlocked. Until then, investors should closely monitor Bitcoin’s trend, macro policy developments, and XRP ETF capital flows.