#机构投资者入场 Looking at VanEck's 2026 outlook, what comes to mind are the cycles we've experienced over the past decade.

Those data points are quite interesting—last cycle saw an 80% decline, this cycle is only expected to be 40%. Volatility has halved; what's behind this? Institutional investors are truly entering the market. I remember in 2017, retail investors chasing highs and institutions observing from the sidelines. By 2021, Grayscale and BlackRock began serious positioning. Now, they have become the market’s stabilizing force. Leverage has been reset after multiple shakeouts, and the message is clear— the crazy times are over, and a rational era has begun.

I've observed this four-year cycle pattern over a dozen times. The peak after the US elections aligns perfectly with October 2025. And 2026 will be a consolidation year, which is actually good news. Consolidation means volatility, and volatility means opportunities. Those still hoping for a surge or a crash, it’s time to wake up.

On-chain activity remains somewhat weak but is starting to improve—this is a signal. Expectations of rate cuts provide support, but US liquidity is tightening due to AI capital expenditures—this is a contradiction. Contradictions often determine the next direction.

My advice is similar to my stock trading mindset over twenty years ago: a 1% to 3% dollar-cost averaging discipline, buying during leverage liquidations, and reducing holdings during overheated speculation. This isn’t an aggressive strategy, but in cyclical markets, the ones who last the longest are never gamblers.

Institutions have already changed the game. What we need to do is think like institutions.