#链上资金流动 Seeing the RSI of BTC approaching oversold levels this wave, I am reminded of some past events. I experienced the frenzy of 2017, and I didn't escape the haircut in 2018. Over the years, repeatedly analyzing these technical indicators, my deepest feeling is — history is repeating itself, but the details always differ.

This time, the capital flow against the dollar reminds me of the period after the 2020 pandemic. At that time, the logic was similar: liquidity flooding, precious metals overheating, institutional capital seeking safe-haven assets. That wave of market movement pushed BTC above $60,000, seemingly unstoppable. But we all know what happened later — the top in 2021 and the ice age in 2022.

The data in front of us now is actually quite clear: BTC holding support levels, ETH gradually highlighting its position as a core asset, and altcoins capital starting to become active. I have seen this rhythm before. The key variables are still Federal Reserve policies and the global economic fundamentals, just like in every cycle before. Institutional investors' participation has indeed increased market stability, which is much better than in 2017, but don’t be too optimistic — institutional inflows and outflows can sometimes be more aggressive than retail investors.

The current trend of on-chain capital flow indicates that the market has not fully shaken off its anxiety about the macro environment. A true rebound requires confirmation from fundamentals, not just a technical bounce. The lesson from these years is: charts can be deceiving, but the real flow of on-chain funds never lies.