【BTC 1H Structure Analysis | Technical Rebound Difficult to Reverse Bearish Trend】#欧美关税风波冲击市场

Core Structural Changes: Momentum Exhaustion and Balance Point Formation
BTC shows an important technical signal on the 1-hour timeframe: the short-term moving average system is highly consolidated and flat at around $89,500. This clearly indicates that the momentum of the previous sharp decline has significantly weakened since the breakdown, and the market is entering a phase of rebalancing and accumulation of bullish and bearish forces. The price is oscillating within a narrow range of $89,000-$90,000, attempting to establish a short-term stabilization platform.
Key Levels and Bull-Bear Logic Deduction
1. Definition of the Oscillation Range:
· Support Line: $89,000 remains the critical integer level and psychological support that must not be lost, and it is also a low point platform tested multiple times recently.
· Bull-Bear Boundary: The consolidation zone around the $89,500 moving average is the current strength center. Holding above it indicates a neutral to slightly bullish short-term structure, with potential to test higher resistance levels.
· Resistance Above: After a successful breakout above $90,000, the next key resistance is in the $91,000-$91,500 zone (near MA30 and MA50).
2. Momentum Indicator Interpretation:
· MACD shows a potential bullish divergence: the DIF line has turned upward and crossed into positive territory (583.6), while the DEA line remains low (-705.5), and the MACD histogram has turned red. This usually signals weakening downward momentum, with a rebound and correction momentum building up.
· RSI has exited oversold territory: currently at 36.15, having moved out of extreme oversold conditions, rising to a neutral-low level, providing technical space for a price rebound.

Future Path Deduction and Observation Points
The market is currently at a “pause in decline, choosing a direction” node. There are two main possible paths for subsequent development:

· Path One (Upside Breakout): Price volume increases and stabilizes above the $89,500-$90,000 zone, further challenging the $90,500-$91,000 resistance. This will preliminarily confirm a short-term bottom structure, with a rebound target potentially reaching the $91,500-$92,500 zone.
· Path Two (Downside Breakdown): Price fails to break through the consolidation pressure of the moving averages, reverses again, and drops volume-wise below the support platform of $88,800-$89,000. This indicates a failed rebound, the continuation of the downtrend, and possible new lows or even a new bottom.

(The market shows key moving average consolidation and momentum divergence signals, with a trend reversal imminent. Subscribers can receive real-time alerts.)