Structural bullish scenario for gold prices toward 2030—The basis for reaching $8,900

As the restructuring of the global financial order accelerates, the long-term upward trend in gold prices is attracting attention. According to the latest analysis by Incrementum, the likelihood of gold reaching $8,900 by the end of 2030 is increasing. This forecast is not merely a market fluctuation prediction but a structural scenario based on fundamental changes in the global economic and political environment.

The Bullish Gold Market Is Still in the Middle—The Essence of the General Investor Participation Stage

To understand the current state of the gold market, it is helpful to refer to the three stages of a bullish market indicated by Dow Theory. From the accumulation phase to the stage of general investor participation and then to euphoria, gold is currently positioned in the second stage, the “entry phase of general investors.”

In this stage, the optimistic tone of media reports increases, and speculative trading volume tends to expand. This characteristic has become evident in the gold market since 2025. Over the past five years, gold prices have risen by 92%, while the real purchasing power of the US dollar against gold has decreased by nearly 50%. This divergence symbolizes the waning confidence in the dollar-based system.

Of particular note is that gold has formed a technical breakthrough not only in absolute price levels but also relative to stocks. The relative position of gold within existing asset portfolios is changing, suggesting a transition from the early to middle stages of a bullish market.

The Restructuring of the Global Financial Order and Its Impact on Gold Demand

Underlying the expansion of gold demand is a major upheaval in the global financial order. Based on an analysis considering the evolution of the Bretton Woods system, the current world is seen as being in a transition phase toward the “Third Bretton Woods era backed by gold.”

This shift is driven by structural doubts about US dollar hegemony. Central banks are purchasing gold at a pace exceeding 1,000 tons for three consecutive years. Notably, Asian central banks are playing a leading role, with Poland expected to become the largest purchaser in 2024, highlighting a trend toward geopolitical diversification.

According to data from the World Gold Council, global gold reserves exceeded 36,000 tons in Q1 2025, accounting for 22% of foreign exchange reserves—its highest level since 1997—indicating that governments are increasing their reliance on gold.

Interestingly, China’s official gold reserves still account for only 6.5%, leaving significant room for future substantial additional purchases. Goldman Sachs forecasts that if China continues to buy gold at a pace of about 40 tons per month, demand could approach nearly 500 tons annually.

Structural Inflationary Pressures Driven by Money Supply Expansion

Understanding the long-term upward trend in gold prices requires considering the trends in money supply across countries. For example, in the US since 1900, while the population increased by 4.5 times, the M2 money supply expanded by 2,333 times. Per capita, this is an increase of over 500 times.

Across G20 countries, the money supply has been growing at an average annual rate of 7.4%, and after a recent three-year period of negative growth, it is now on the rise again. This acceleration could serve as a new catalyst for the “Big Long”—the long-term bullish phase of gold.

With government and central bank policies favoring inflation, the supply of fiat currency continues to expand arbitrarily, while the physical supply of gold remains constrained by physical limitations. This asymmetry is the fundamental reason why gold functions as a long-term inflation hedge.

From Portfolio Defense to Attack—The New 60/40 Allocation Strategy

As confidence in the traditional 60% stocks and 40% bonds portfolio wanes, a new asset allocation model is being proposed. Incrementum recommends a restructured 60/40 composition as follows:

45% stocks, 15% bonds, 15% gold as a safe asset, 10% performance gold, 10% commodities, and 5% Bitcoin. This allocation increases the total share of gold and related assets (silver, mining stocks) to 25%, significantly enhancing its role as a traditional safe asset.

A key point is the clear distinction between gold as a safe asset and performance gold. Gold acts as a “stabilizer” within the asset portfolio, while silver and mining stocks, with relatively higher volatility, offer the potential for greater returns. Looking back at market performance in the 1970s and 2000s, silver and mining stocks have the potential for a substantial rebound.

Policy Shifts in the Trump Administration and Dollar Depreciation Pressure

A major policy shift is underway in the US. Attempts at excessive government debt reduction, protectionist tariffs, and a tendency toward dollar depreciation are exerting structural upward pressure on gold.

The US is currently paying over $1 trillion annually just in interest on national debt, surpassing the defense budget. The new tariffs announced in April 2025 have raised the average tariff rate to nearly 30%, far exceeding the levels of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930.

In Europe, Germany’s fiscal policy has undergone a 180-degree turn, with conservative leadership officially abandoning fiscal conservatism. Under the next chancellor, large-scale defense spending and infrastructure investments are expected to increase Germany’s national debt from 60% to 90% of GDP.

Short-term Adjustment Risks and the Long-term Scenario Toward 2030

Incrementum’s forecast for gold prices toward 2030 presents two scenarios. The baseline scenario projects a price of around $4,800, while the inflation scenario suggests reaching approximately $8,900 by the end of 2030.

Currently, gold prices already exceed the baseline target of $2,942 by the end of 2025 and are tracking along the inflation scenario. Depending on future inflation rates and geopolitical developments over the next five years, prices are likely to fall somewhere between these two scenarios.

In the short term, there are risks of correction. Unexpected declines in central bank demand, reduction of speculative positions, a decrease in geopolitical premiums, or unexpectedly strong US economic performance could push gold prices down to around $2,800. However, such corrections are considered natural parts of a bullish market and are unlikely to threaten the long-term upward trend.

Gold and Bitcoin—The Rise of Non-State Credit Assets

The ongoing restructuring of the world order benefits not only gold but also decentralized cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Against the backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin’s independence from state control and its borderless transaction capabilities are increasing its importance.

According to Incrementum’s analysis, Bitcoin could reach 50% of the market capitalization of gold by the end of 2030. Given that Bitcoin’s current market value is about 8% of total gold, this implies a required Bitcoin price of approximately $900,000 by 2030.

Interestingly, the report notes that the competition between gold and Bitcoin is not necessarily disadvantageous. A risk-adjusted, combined portfolio may outperform individual investments. The complementary roles of gold’s stability and Bitcoin’s growth potential are becoming an attractive long-term investment strategy.

Conclusion—Gold’s Recovery and the Path Toward Supra-national Settlement Assets

In conclusion, gold has already shed its relic status and is transforming into an asset that plays a central role in capital markets. The bullish trend in gold is not over; it is still in the midst of the general investor participation phase, with further upside potential.

The rise in gold prices toward 2030 is supported not only by market speculation but also by a confluence of factors including the global restructuring of financial systems, structural demand increases from central banks, and structural inflationary pressures driven by expanding fiat currency supplies.

As confidence in existing monetary systems wanes, gold is likely to evolve from a “portfolio stabilizer” to a “supra-national settlement asset.” Its recovery as a neutral, debt-free trust asset, rather than a political tool, will be a crucial strategic choice for investors during times of global turmoil.