Bullish gold market trend accelerates toward 2030: The rationale behind reaching $8,900 suggested by momentum analysis

The 2025 Gold Investment Report “In Gold We Trust” suggests that the gold market outlook for 2030 significantly exceeds traditional conservative forecasts. According to the latest analysis by Incrementum, the gold price is currently in the “general investor participation stage” of Dow Theory, making a target of $8,900 by the end of 2030 a very realistic scenario. This bullish outlook is supported not just by optimism but by multiple structural factors, including the reorganization of the global financial order, large-scale central bank purchases, and rising inflation pressures.

The Trajectory of the Gold Market: From Periphery to Center — A Turning Point in Market Sentiment

Once considered an outdated, low-yield asset in Western financial markets, gold’s position is fundamentally changing. This report likens this shift to a reverse version of the movie “The Big Short.” As financial system instability increases, strategic inflows into gold are accelerating, elevating it from peripheral assets to the core of the market.

Based on Dow Theory’s three-stage analysis of a bull market, gold is currently in the second stage, the “general investor participation stage.” Characteristics of this stage include media reports becoming more optimistic, increased speculative trading volume, the emergence of new financial products, and upward revisions of analyst forecasts. Looking at the past five years of gold prices, the price has risen by 92%, while the purchasing power of the US dollar has declined by nearly 50%. This divergence reflects not just a commodity price increase but a fundamental loss of currency confidence.

From last year through April 30, 2024, gold prices have hit new highs 22 times in US dollar terms, the second-highest after 57 times in 1979, clearly indicating the sustainability of the bullish trend. The breakthrough of the $3,000 level suggests that the current movement remains on a gradual trajectory compared to the sharp rises during historic financial crises.

Structural Support for Gold Prices from Geopolitical Reorganization

As Zoltan Pozsar points out in his “Bretton Woods III” paper, the world is transitioning from the old system backed by gold to “Bretton Woods II,” supported by US Treasuries, and now toward “Bretton Woods III,” supported by gold and commodities. This geopolitical reorganization creates a highly favorable environment for gold.

There are three reasons why gold could become the cornerstone of a new monetary order. First, gold is a neutral asset not subordinate to any specific nation or political power, making it a unifying element in a multipolar world. Second, gold carries no counterparty risk and can be stored domestically by countries to mitigate confiscation risks. Third, gold has high liquidity; in 2024, its average daily trading volume exceeded $229 billion, and according to the London Bullion Market Association, this can sometimes surpass that of government bonds.

The policy directions of the Trump administration also serve as a background factor for the gold market. Measures such as addressing excessive government debt, shifting trade policies with tariffs, and restoring competitiveness through dollar devaluation increase the risk of US economic slowdown and intensify pressure on the Federal Reserve for monetary easing. Additionally, a 180-degree shift in European fiscal policy, including Germany, symbolizes a structural tailwind for gold. The 35-year fluctuation in German bonds reflects a decline in confidence in traditional “safe assets.”

Central Bank Gold Purchases as a Support Mechanism for Gold Prices

Demand from central banks remains one of the most reliable support factors for current gold prices. Since 2009, central banks have consistently been net buyers of gold, and this trend has accelerated significantly since the freezing of Russian foreign reserves in February 2022. Central banks have achieved over three consecutive years of purchasing more than 1,000 tons annually, an extraordinary “hat trick.”

According to World Gold Council statistics, by February 2025, global gold reserves reached 36,252 tons. In 2024, the proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves hit 22%, the highest since 1997, but still well below the historic peak of over 70% in 1980. This “room for normalization” suggests potential for long- to medium-term upside in gold prices.

Most of these purchases are led by Asian central banks, with Poland becoming the largest buyer in 2024. Notably, despite continuous large-scale buying by China, the proportion of gold in its foreign reserves remains only 6.5%. In contrast, the US, Germany, France, and Italy hold over 70% of their reserves in gold. According to Goldman Sachs, China is expected to continue buying about 40 tons per month, amounting to nearly 500 tons annually, roughly half of the total central bank demand over the past three years.

Structural Inflationary Pressures from Money Supply Expansion

Since 1900, the US population has increased 4.5 times, while the money supply M2 has expanded by 2,333 times. Per capita, this is an increase of over 500 times, which this report likens to “steroid-injected athletes.” While visually dramatic, it contains inherent structural vulnerabilities.

The money supply of G20 countries has been growing at an average annual rate of 7.4%, returning to growth after three years of contraction. This re-acceleration is likely to serve as a key long-term driver of the gold market. Based on Larry Lepard’s “The Big Print,” the acceleration in money supply growth is highly likely to act as a new catalyst for a “big bull market.”

In the short term, deflationary trends may persist, but responses to economic downturns and stock market crashes—such as yield curve control, new quantitative easing, financial repression, additional fiscal stimulus, and even MMT or helicopter money—are all inflationary in nature. In stagflation environments, gold has historically shown an average real annual growth rate of 7.7%, silver 28.6%, and mining stocks 3.4%.

Gold Price Outlook for 2030: Base and Inflation Scenarios

According to Incrementum’s gold price forecast model, the baseline scenario as of 2020 set a target of around $4,800 by the end of 2030, with a mid-term target (end of 2025) of $2,942. The inflation scenario projected a 2030 year-end target of $8,900 and a mid-term target of $4,080.

Currently, gold prices have already surpassed the 2025 mid-term target of $2,942 in the baseline scenario, indicating a strengthening trend toward the inflation scenario. Depending on inflation rates over the next five years, the gold price in 2030 is likely to be near the midpoint between the two scenarios. In other words, the gold market in 2030 is expected to be at a middle ground between extreme optimism and pessimism, with a continued upward trend.

The New 60/40 Portfolio: Asset Allocation Model for the Gold Era

The era of the traditional 60% stocks and 40% bonds allocation is coming to an end. The new portfolio proposed in this report consists of: 45% stocks, 15% bonds, 15% gold as a safe asset, 10% performance gold, 10% commodities, and 5% Bitcoin.

This reallocation demonstrates a practical response to declining confidence in traditional safe assets. Notably, it distinguishes between “gold as a safe asset” and “performance gold.” The latter includes silver, mining stocks, and commodities, which are believed to have significant upside potential in the coming years. Looking back at the performance in the 1970s and 2000s, silver and mining stocks are assets with potential for a strong rebound in the recent decade. Market trends show that gold typically leads the rally, followed by silver, mining stocks, and commodities in a relay-like fashion.

The Coexistence of Bitcoin and Gold: Competition and Complementarity Toward 2030

Bitcoin stands to benefit from current geopolitical reorganization. As a decentralized cryptocurrency, Bitcoin offers independence from state control and cross-border transaction capabilities, providing an alternative to traditional currencies. The US’s enactment of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act signifies the start of a national-level digital gold race, highlighting the strategic importance of this asset class.

As of April, the market value of mined gold is approximately $23 trillion (217,465 tons), while Bitcoin’s market value is about $1.9 trillion (roughly $94,200 per Bitcoin), only about 8% of the gold market value. This report suggests that by the end of 2030, Bitcoin could reach 50% of gold’s market capitalization. If gold remains at a conservative $4,800, Bitcoin would need to rise to about $900,000 to match 50% of gold’s market cap.

Crucially, the existence of gold and Bitcoin is not mutually exclusive but rather complementary. Following the motto “competition stimulates business,” a combined portfolio of both assets, risk-adjusted, is likely to outperform individual investments. This report has long held the belief that “gold provides stability, Bitcoin offers convexity,” and this perspective forms the core of the asset allocation strategy toward 2030.

Risks and Short-Term Corrections

While the long-term bullish trend remains intact, short-term correction factors cannot be ignored. An unexpected decline in central bank demand from the current quarterly average of 250 tons could weaken structural demand. There is also the possibility of rapid deleveraging by speculators. Lower geopolitical premiums, unexpectedly strong US economic data prompting Fed tightening, and high technical and emotional risks could exert short-term downward pressure.

This report forecasts that gold prices may experience a short-term correction to around $2,800 or sideways movement. However, such corrections should be viewed as part of a healthy bull market stabilization process and are unlikely to threaten the medium- to long-term upward trend of gold.

Conclusion: Structural Outlook for Gold Prices Toward 2030

Gold prices have not yet reached the end of their bullish phase but are still in the midst of the general investor participation stage. Gold, once considered an outdated asset, is transforming into a major component of portfolios, combining stability with growth potential. This report likens gold to “Michael Jordan of the asset world,” a true game-changer with both solid defense and powerful offense.

The long-term rise of gold toward 2030 is supported by multiple mutually reinforcing pillars: the inevitable reorganization of the global financial and monetary system, government and central bank inflation bias, structural changes in the financial environment, the rise of gold-friendly regional economies in Asia and the Arab world, capital outflows from US assets, and the excess returns of performance gold.

Current gold price increases are not only a reflection of crises but also potentially a first sign of the “Golden Swan Moment.” As confidence in existing currency systems continues to decline, gold’s role as a traditional monetary asset is likely to be reestablished, serving as a neutral, debt-free foundation for trade, exchange, and trust—rather than a tool of political power. The gold market in 2030 may function not just as a commodity price target but as an indicator of the reconstruction of a global confidence system.