#避险需求与地缘政治事件 When tensions in Venezuela escalated, my first reaction was to recall that period in 2016. Back then, geopolitical crises were frequent, from Brexit to Trump's election, and every time someone predicted a crypto market crash, but Bitcoin instead found its safe haven amid the storm.

This time is different; the market response has been limited—BTC around $90,000 did not panic sell-off but quickly regained its footing. It reminds me of the scene during the 2020 black swan event, when the market experienced panic selling, but true institutional investors never left. The difference is that back then we were debating whether Bitcoin is a safe haven asset, and now the data speaks for itself.

Interestingly, analysts mentioned the importance of maintaining support at the 21-day moving average, which reminds me of every similar technical support level over the past decade. But I am more focused on the underlying logic—under geopolitical shocks, risk assets should typically plummet, yet BTC did not. This indicates that the market's perception of cryptocurrencies as alternative assets has matured to a certain extent, no longer just speculative instruments.

The OPEC meeting on Sunday might be the real variable. From oil price fluctuations, the geopolitical impact seems more direct, and the crypto market might be observing. But my feeling is that this resilience is not a coincidence; it is the inevitable result of a decade of evolving safe haven demand.