According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), non-OPEC+ nations are projected to contribute 1.8 million barrels per day (b/d) of oil supply growth throughout 2025. This represents a significant shift in the global energy landscape.

What does this mean for the broader market? When non-traditional oil producers ramp up output, we typically see downward pressure on energy prices—a major tailwind for global economic activity and corporate margins. Cheaper energy translates to lower inflation pressures and potentially looser monetary conditions, which historically benefits risk assets including crypto.

The supply injection from non-OPEC+ actors (primarily Brazil, Guyana, Kazakhstan, and U.S. shale producers) suggests the oil market is becoming less cartel-dependent. This decentralization of supply creates more price stability, reducing the geopolitical premium that often inflates energy costs during tensions.

For investors tracking macro cycles, this 2025 outlook signals an environment where energy isn't the economic chokepoint it's been in recent years. That breathing room matters when positioning across different asset classes.