IG's 2026 Outlook Signals Gold's Strong Rally Potential as Commodity Markets Diverge

Market analysts from IG, including Farah Mourad and Ye Weiwen, have unveiled their comprehensive 2026 Commodities Outlook, revealing a compelling divergence between precious metals and energy sectors. According to their analysis, gold is positioned for sustained strength throughout the year, driven by a confluence of favorable macroeconomic conditions and structural market support. IG’s report indicates this bullish trajectory for gold stems from multiple reinforcing factors working in tandem.

Gold Set to Climb Higher: IG Forecasts Bullish Momentum Driven by Central Bank Demand

The precious metals narrative centers on gold’s robust upside potential as declining real yields, elevated government spending, and persistent central bank purchasing combine to support prices. Major investment banks represented in the IG analysis project that gold will trade within a $4,500-$4,700 range during 2026, with potential to breach the $5,000 threshold should macroeconomic headwinds ease. This bullish case for gold reflects the metal’s deep-rooted appeal as both a wealth preservation instrument and portfolio hedge in an uncertain economic environment.

Silver’s Recovery Phase: From 120% Surge to Next Target Zones

Following an extraordinary 120% advance in 2025, silver has transitioned into a price discovery phase. IG’s outlook highlights persistent supply constraints—now in their fifth consecutive year—coupled with accelerating industrial demand as key catalysts. Analysts project silver could pierce the $65 mark, with technical indicators suggesting potential moves toward $72 or even $88. The supply-demand imbalance underpins this constructive medium-term outlook for the metal.

Energy Markets Face Structural Headwinds Amid Supply Glut

The energy complex presents a contrasting picture to precious metals. Crude oil faces mounting pressure as production growth substantially outpaces consumption, creating a structural supply surplus. IG’s 2026 energy forecasts estimate Brent crude averaging $62.23 and WTI averaging $59 per barrel. More bearishly, JPMorgan Chase cautions that if supply imbalances intensify, Brent could deteriorate toward the $30 range, underscoring downside risks to the energy sector.

The divergence highlighted in IG’s outlook underscores a critical market bifurcation: precious metals benefit from deep macroeconomic tailwinds and long-term structural demand, while energy faces persistent downward pressure, with geopolitical risk providing only limited price floor support through 2026.