Federal Reserve Board Chair's interest rate decision imminent, market attention intensifies

As the macroeconomic outlook takes center stage in the market, the upcoming interest rate decision announcement led by the Federal Reserve Board Chair is imminent. Recent US economic indicators such as ADP non-farm employment data and personal consumption expenditures(PCE) are supporting the possibility of rate cuts, alleviating market concerns on Wall Street. Investors are once again focusing on the low volatility and high certainty of risk assets, while the market is closely watching the future policy direction of the Federal Reserve Board Chair.

Signals Sent to the Market by Weak Employment Indicators

As the US labor market shows negative signs, market participants are paying close attention. Recently, as employment growth has slowed over the past few months, the market has begun to generally anticipate a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve. These weak employment indicators are expected to serve as important variables in the Fed Chair’s interest rate decision. Market experts believe that weakened labor market data could be key evidence justifying a rate cut.

Schedule for Rate Decision and the Fed Chair’s Stance

On Wednesday at 3:00 a.m., the Federal Open Market Committee(FOMC) will announce the interest rate decision and a summary of economic outlook. Particularly, at 3:30 a.m. the same day, the Fed Chair is expected to hold a press conference on monetary policy to send clear signals to the market. The Chair’s remarks will play a crucial role in narrowing the gap between market expectations and the actual policy direction of the Federal Reserve.

Attention to Key Economic Data Release Schedule

Upcoming key economic events include the release of the US November New York Fed inflation expectations at 0:00 on Tuesday, and at 23:00 on Tuesday, the October JOLTs job openings data. On Thursday at 9:30 p.m., the number of new unemployment benefit claims and the September trade balance will be released simultaneously. These indicators are considered critical factors influencing the Fed’s interest rate decision.

Speeches by Senior Fed Officials on Economic Outlook

On Friday, speeches by senior Federal Reserve officials are scheduled. At 9:00 p.m., Powell, a voting member of the 2026 FOMC and President of the Philadelphia Fed, will comment on the economic outlook, followed by Cleveland Fed President Mester at 9:30 p.m. At 11:35 p.m., Goolsby, President of the Chicago Fed, will participate in a panel discussion at the 39th Annual Economic Outlook Symposium. The remarks from these senior officials are expected to complement the Fed Chair’s policy stance and help deepen market understanding.

Analysis of Market Expectations and Fed Plans Gap

The Fed’s September 2026 dot plot hints at two rate cuts per year. Meanwhile, the current market expects a total easing of 63 basis points by 2026, implying more than three rate cuts next year. This gap appears to be driven by recent weak employment data and easing inflation trends, and attention is on how the Fed Chair’s future statements and policy decisions might narrow this gap. Given that market expectations are more aggressive than the Fed’s actual policy, there is also a possibility of renewed volatility in the future rate path.