The core contradiction in the current market lies in the significant divergence between the optimistic bullish narrative and the cautious bearish expectations.

Market Bearish Logic Overview

Below are some recent major bearish or risk-related viewpoints proposed by certain institutions and analysts, with differences in their logic and potential target levels.

1. Short-term Technical Pullback

· Core Viewpoint: Short-term short signals appear on the 4-hour chart.
· Main Arguments: Price tests key resistance levels, RSI is overbought.
· Target Price Range: First target around $2892, aggressive view down to approximately $2848.
· Source/Background: Based on technical chart analysis.

2. Mid-term Adjustment Under Macro Risks

· Core Viewpoint: The market may experience a significant pullback in the first half of 2026.
· Main Arguments: Macro headwinds (such as government shutdowns, Federal Reserve chair changes), ETF fund outflows, technical weakening.
· Target Price Range: ETH could fall back to the $1800-$2000 zone.
· Source/Background: Insights from Sean Farrell, Head of Digital Asset Strategy at Fundstrat, in an internal client report.

3. “Bull Trap” Risk After Breaking New Highs

· Core Viewpoint: If a new all-time high is reached in 2026, it could be a bull trap followed by a sharp retracement.
· Main Arguments: Historical pattern analogy, correction after excessive price extension.
· Target Price Range: Could sharply decline to around $2000.
· Source/Background: Warning from well-known analyst Benjamin Cowen on the Bankless program.

4. Long-term Structural Concerns

· Core Viewpoint: Ethereum faces a value capture crisis and identity dilemma.
· Main Arguments: Layer2 developments reduce mainnet fee income; monetary narrative is less clear than Bitcoin’s; application narrative faces competition from other public chains.
· Target Price Range: No specific target given; considered a structural bearish outlook.
· Source/Background: Messari’s 2026 cryptocurrency research report.

Key Facts You Need to Know

Before making decisions, please pay close attention to the following key facts on the other side of the market, which may contradict or weaken the above bearish logic:

· Strong Public Bullish Sentiment: Also from Fundstrat, co-founder Tom Lee has repeatedly stated publicly that Ethereum is “seriously undervalued,” with long-term targets of $7000-$9000 or even higher by early 2026. His internal bearish reports conflict with these public statements.
· Positive On-Chain Developments: In 2025, Ethereum successfully implemented two major upgrades, Pectra and Fusaka, aimed at enhancing scalability and user experience, with plans for another upgrade in the first half of 2026. Meanwhile, the enterprise Ethereum treasury (DATs) accumulated a substantial amount of ETH in 2025.
· Important Historical Context: As of the third week of December 2025, ETH price dropped from $3336 at the start of the year to about $2930, a decline of approximately 12% year-to-date, indicating some risks may have already been priced in.

Questions to Consider Before Making Decisions

Given the significant divergence in market opinions, any unilateral operation carries high risk. Before deciding, it’s recommended to rationally evaluate the following points:

1. Time Frame: Are you considering short-term trading (days/weeks) or medium to long-term holding? Different analytical viewpoints target entirely different time spans.
2. Driving Logic: Do you trust short-term technical indicators, medium-term macro risks, or long-term fundamental narratives more? Different logic may conflict in the current environment.
3. Risk Tolerance: If prices move against you by 20%, 30%, or even more, can your position and mindset withstand it? Strict stop-loss measures are essential.