Interesting paraphrase: Michael Saylor's depiction of Bitcoin's intrinsic victory and Strategy's digital lending strategy

Michael Saylor, Founder and Chairman of Strategy, reinterpreted the success of Bitcoin through an intriguing perspective in the “What Bitcoin Did” podcast. Instead of focusing on short-term price fluctuations, he emphasized that the true victory of Bitcoin lies in the institutional and fundamental progress achieved by 2025. This viewpoint suggests a fundamental shift in the valuation of assets within the cryptocurrency industry.

Evolution of Institutional Foundations Achieved by 2025 — From Insurance to Banking Integration

The “fundamental victory” highlighted by Saylor was realized through a combination of multiple institutional factors. First, the rapid increase in companies holding Bitcoin is noteworthy. While there were about 30 to 60 companies in 2024, projections indicated that by the end of 2025, this number would reach approximately 200. This figure symbolizes that Bitcoin holdings on corporate balance sheets are now recognized not merely as speculative bets but as rational business strategies.

A recovery in the insurance market marks a particularly significant turning point. As Saylor himself recounted his experience of having his insurance policy canceled when purchasing Bitcoin in 2020, previously, insurance coverage for companies holding cryptocurrencies was extremely limited. The revival of insurance coverage in 2025, after four years of companies having to cover their assets with personal funds, is evidence that the entire financial industry has fundamentally reassessed Bitcoin’s risk profile.

The evolution of accounting standards is also noteworthy. The adoption of fair value accounting enabled companies to recognize unrealized capital gains as profits. Previously, public companies faced challenges related to unrealized capital gains taxes, but with proactive government guidance in 2025, these barriers were lifted. As a result, monetizing Bitcoin holdings was officially facilitated.

Official government recognition is also groundbreaking. The formal acknowledgment of Bitcoin as the “world’s leading and largest digital commodity” by governments reflects a fundamental change in the regulatory environment, rather than a mere symbolic gesture.

Integration into Banking Systems and Maturation of Market Infrastructure

Movements within the banking industry, the highest tier of the financial system, accelerated institutionalization in 2025. At the beginning of the year, Bitcoin-backed lending was virtually nonexistent. However, by the end of the year, most major US banks had begun offering loans collateralized by IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust), and about a quarter of banks planned to offer direct Bitcoin collateralized loans. By early 2026, both JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley were engaged in discussions regarding Bitcoin trading and processing.

The positive guidance from the Treasury Department underpins this trend institutionally. Favorable guidance on incorporating cryptocurrencies into bank balance sheets gained support from regulatory authorities overall. The chairs of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) have explicitly expressed support for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

In terms of market infrastructure, the commercialization of Bitcoin derivatives on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) advanced. Moreover, an innovative physical issuance and redemption mechanism was introduced, allowing exchanges of $1 million worth of Bitcoin for IBIT ETF and vice versa. This tax-free exchange scheme is a crucial infrastructure enabling the integration of digital assets with traditional financial products.

The Importance of Long-Term Perspectives Beyond Short-Term Price Fluctuations

An intriguing point emphasized by Saylor is a thorough skepticism toward short-term price predictions. Despite Bitcoin reaching a record high 95 days ago, he points out the futility of discussing subsequent price movements. In his words, evaluating short-term price fluctuations over 100 or 180 days can mislead the understanding of the fundamental value creation process.

At the core of Bitcoin’s philosophy is the idea that “temporal preference should be low.” Historically, successful proponents of ideological movements have typically committed to ten-year horizons. Many have taken 20 or 30 years to achieve success. If the true goal is the commercialization of Bitcoin, then analyzing success over intervals of ten weeks or ten months is misguided. This challenges many market participants’ short-term focus and prompts a fundamental reevaluation.

Evaluated over a four-year moving average, Bitcoin’s performance shows a very bullish trend, and 2026 is expected to be similarly significant. However, attempting to predict prices 90 or 180 days ahead overlooks the fact that the industry is progressing in the right direction. In fact, recent declines over the past 90 days could have been an excellent opportunity for foresighted investors to buy more Bitcoin.

Rationale for Positioning Bitcoin as a Universal Capital in the Digital Age

According to Saylor, corporate decisions to hold Bitcoin are entirely rational from a management strategy perspective, not mere speculation. For example, a company incurring an annual loss of $10 million but holding $1 billion worth of Bitcoin that generates a capital gain of $300 million would have a vastly different overall value creation profile.

The critique should not be directed at corporate Bitcoin purchases per se but at ongoing loss-making practices. The counterintuitive logic that companies with losses should be the ones to consider holding Bitcoin suggests that Bitcoin holdings are increasingly becoming a managerial obligation.

Saylor’s analogy that “companies holding Bitcoin are like factories with power infrastructure” offers an interesting reinterpretation of Bitcoin’s fundamental position. Just as electricity is a universal capital powering all machinery, Bitcoin is a universal capital in the digital era. From this perspective, the argument that there is a sufficiently large market for all 400 million companies worldwide to purchase Bitcoin is compelling.

In response to concerns about market saturation, Saylor raises a fundamental question. If the market for companies issuing senior credit or corporate credit is not saturated, then the market for Bitcoin-related financial services should also have enormous growth potential.

Outlook for the Digital Credit Market — The Future Strategy Aims For

Saylor’s core business strategy is to create a new financial market backed by Bitcoin. Strategy’s business model is not banking but aims to build a “digital credit” market that leverages dollar reserves to enhance corporate creditworthiness.

The potential market size for digital credit products (STRC) is theoretically almost unlimited. Gaining just 10% of the US Treasury bond market would amount to a $10 trillion market. If designed as a listed product with a 10% dividend yield and a valuation of 1-2 times, it could become an ideal choice sought by all investors.

The strategic importance of holding dollar reserves lies in gaining trust from credit investors. Unlike equity investors who seek high volatility in Bitcoin or stocks, credit investors demand assets with the highest creditworthiness. To become the largest player in the digital credit field, companies need to maximize their credit strength, and holding dollar reserves is an effective means to that end.

The stock prices of business companies are influenced not only by current capital utilization but also by future business potential. Saylor’s statement that “just because it hasn’t been done yet doesn’t mean it can’t be done” indicates that Strategy’s business vision encompasses not only current achievements but also the potential for structural transformation in the digital lending market.

Defining Bitcoin as “digital capital” and building a “digital credit” market on top of it is an interesting reinterpretation of integrating cryptocurrencies into the financial system. If this concept is realized, the financial markets beyond 2026 will evolve into a new form where digital capital and traditional credit markets complement each other.