Willie Wu's analysis of Bitcoin: Market signals beyond the $100,000 high

Famous cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo recently expressed conflicting views on the short-term outlook and mid- to long-term scenarios for Bitcoin. According to a report by PANews on January 11, Willy Woo is optimistic about price movements from late January to February but raises cautious concerns about the market after 2026. He emphasized that the price movement around $100,000 is a critical point that will determine the future market direction.

Short-term Bullish Scenario: Possibility of Breaking the $100,000 Resistance

According to Willy Woo’s internal investment fund flow model, Bitcoin has been on a continuous upward trend since forming a low on December 24. Generally, it takes 2-3 weeks for changes in fund flow to be reflected in actual prices, and current analysis suggests that this process is underway. Although short-term overbought technical indicators are limiting the rise, the recovery of liquidity in the futures market from months of stagnation is a positive sign. This pattern resembles the peak formation period of the previous cycle before mid-2021.

Currently, Bitcoin’s price is hovering near $100,000, and maintaining this level will be key to the next upward phase. If the $100,000 resistance is broken, it is expected that there will be a strong possibility of a rebound toward the all-time high resistance zone at $126,000. Willy Woo described this resistance level as a stage where the market is testing its robustness.

Bearish Signals in 2026: Liquidity Shortage is the Key

However, from a broader market perspective, the situation becomes more complex. Despite the acceleration of price increases since January 2025, Willy Woo’s diagnosis indicates that the supporting liquidity is actually weakening. The current market is in the final phase of an upward trend, lacking sufficient fund flow to sustain this rise. This explains why short-term bullish scenarios coexist with long-term bearish outlooks.

Willy Woo’s caution about 2026 is clear. For the current upward momentum to be maintained, a significant influx of spot and long-term liquidity must occur. Without such large-scale liquidity injection, a transition to a bearish trend is inevitable. He warned that although a bear market is not yet confirmed, ongoing capital outflows from Bitcoin could serve as a lagging indicator of the start of a downturn.

Fund Flow Determines the Direction

Ultimately, Willy Woo’s analysis suggests that both the possibility of breaking through $100,000 and concerns about a long-term bear market depend on a single variable: liquidity. While technical bullish signals and the recovery of futures market liquidity are positive in the short term, persistent lack of spot liquidity could signal a bearish trend in 2026. Investors should pay attention not only to price movements near $100,000 but also to underlying changes in fund flow.