The Federal Reserve's rate cut window may be delayed, with US job vacancy data being key

According to the latest research report from Founder Securities, the US employment data in December has become the market’s focus, with non-farm job openings in particular being especially important. Based on market expectations, it is highly probable that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January, with the earliest rate cut likely postponed until June. This judgment is based on a comprehensive assessment of the employment market and policy environment.

Employment Market Shows Mild Downward Trend, Divergence in US Job Openings

December non-farm payroll data presents mixed signals. Key indicators such as new employment numbers, US job opening rate, and wage growth all indicate that the US employment market remains relatively sluggish, showing a mild downward trend overall. However, the unemployment rate data shows some bright spots, with slight improvement at the margins, providing the Federal Reserve with reasons to hold steady in the short term.

From the signals of interest rate futures and US Treasury movements, institutional investors have gradually adjusted their expectations: the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates in January, and the actual rate cut cycle may not start until June at the earliest. This reflects a cautious market attitude towards the progress of employment recovery.

Tariffs Declared Unconstitutional, Favoring US Stocks; Bond Market Faces Downward Pressure

Another important variable comes from policy developments. The Supreme Court may soon declare the IEEPA tariffs unconstitutional, which will change market expectations for the economic outlook. The easing of tariff uncertainties implies a marginal improvement in economic expectations and a weakening of inflationary pressures, but concerns over increasing fiscal deficits still remain.

In the context of the Federal Reserve’s current stance of no urgent rate cuts and reduced tariff disruptions, US Treasuries face more negative factors, with high-level operations becoming the mainstream expectation. In contrast, US stocks benefit from sustained AI prosperity and reduced tariff interference, with sectors such as consumer staples and industrials, which have long been impacted by tariffs, showing the greatest resilience and relatively more room for rebound.