#Meme币市场动态 Observing a week of on-chain data for MEME coins, some insights are worth recording.

PEPE surged 38% in a single day in January, while BTC only rose 3%—this is not noise; it’s a signal of risk appetite rotation. Historically, MEME coins tend to lead the market during early stages of sentiment rebound, as seen in 2021 when DOGE’s market cap soared to $31.5 billion, following the same logic.

But the threat of the fragile structural framework (ME2F) cannot be ignored. The total market cap of MEME coins dropped from 150.6 billion in December 2024 to 47.2 billion in November 2025, indicating that these assets are highly dependent on speculative capital flows and lack fundamental support. Concentration of whales, fragmented liquidity, and emotion-driven high volatility—any of these factors could trigger a nonlinear retracement.

I am more focused on the capital rotation path: MEME rises first → retail arbitrage → capital flows into mainstream assets (BTC/ETH). This migration from high Beta to mature protocols reflects the maturation of market participants, with institutions also beginning to use MEME coins as proxies for "overall market optimism" bets. The low-friction characteristics of the Solana ecosystem and Pump.fun further amplify this link.

The key divergence lies here: the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in the "fear" zone, but social media sentiment is extremely hot. Local euphoria coexists with overall caution—this is typical of a fragmented market and also indicates that risk and opportunity coexist.

Tracking MEME coins can capture retail sentiment shifts, but it should never be used as the sole decision-making basis. Liquidity concentration, narrative sustainability, and macro stability—these are the risk factors that must be incorporated into pricing. Speculative momentum is strong, but structural resilience still needs validation.