Bitcoin breaks $100,000 in January, expected to plummet in 6 days: from a 68% chance of decline to 7%, what exactly happened in the market

Expectation Reversal: 90% Drop in Probability Within 6 Days

According to the latest news, Polymarket prediction market data shows a rapid reversal of market sentiment. The probability of Bitcoin breaking $100,000 in January has plummeted from 68% on January 15 to 7% in just 6 days, a decline of 90%. Meanwhile, market bets on a decline have significantly increased: the probability of falling below $85,000 has risen to 37%, and the probability of dropping below $80,000 is 14%. This sharp reversal in expectations reflects a fundamental change in market participants’ views on BTC’s recent trend.

Discrepancy Between Price Reality and Expectations

Current price trend does not support an optimistic outlook

As of now, BTC is quoted at $89,248, only about $8,000 away from the $100,000 target. However, the price trend tells a different story: a 24-hour decline of 2.03%, and a 7-day decline of 6.10%. This downward pressure is weakening market confidence in breaking through $100,000.

From a time perspective, there are about 10 days left in January (starting from January 21). To rise nearly 9% in such a short period and stabilize above $100,000 requires strong buying support. But the current market shows continuous decline, leading prediction market participants to gradually lower their success probabilities.

Changes in the bullish/bearish landscape of the prediction market

This comparison clearly illustrates the shift in market sentiment: from strong optimism about rising to clear concern about falling.

Repricing of Market Consensus

Why is the prediction market so sensitive?

Polymarket, as a decentralized prediction market, aggregates real expectations and fund votes from participants worldwide. Unlike traditional markets, prediction market participants bet with real money, allowing market prices to reflect collective wisdom more objectively. When the probability drops from 68% to 7%, it indicates that a large amount of capital is moving from the “bullish” camp to the “bearish” camp.

Possible driving factors behind this

Although the news does not explicitly specify the reasons for the probability decline, combining it with price movements suggests: BTC has recently declined by 6.10%, breaking the market’s optimistic expectations of continued growth in January. With limited time and a distant target, market participants are gradually recognizing that breaking $100,000 within January is becoming more difficult, leading to lowered probabilities.

Current Market Expectations

New focus: support levels rather than targets

Interestingly, as bullish expectations fade, the market’s focus shifts to support levels below. The 37% probability of falling below $85,000 indicates that market participants believe the risk of downward breakdown can no longer be ignored. This suggests that the current price of $89,248 may be in a relatively fragile position, with $85,000 becoming the new key support level.

Insights from the prediction market

Changes in Polymarket data remind us that market sentiment can change dramatically in a very short time. From “nearly 70% chance of breaking through” to “only one in seven chance,” such a shift usually signifies that important fundamental or technical developments have been digested by the market. For BTC investors, this could be a signal to reassess risk-reward ratios.

Summary

The sharp drop in the probability of BTC breaking $100,000 in January on Polymarket, from 68% to 7%, reflects a fundamental change in market participants’ views on BTC’s recent trend within a short period. The current price of $89,248 combined with continuous decline indicates a shift from bullish to cautious about downside risks. This reminds us that prediction markets, while not perfectly accurate, often reflect significant changes in market consensus that are worth paying attention to. The next 10 days will determine whether BTC continues to lower its probability of breaking $100,000 or gradually regains confidence.