Rephrasing concerns about the institutionalization of Bitcoin: The full picture of the digital credit market outlined by Strategy

MicroStrategy founder and Chairman Michael Saylor discussed the concerns facing the Bitcoin industry from a completely different perspective on the “What Bitcoin Did” podcast, elaborating in detail that 2025 was a pivotal year for institutional adoption. His argument shifts the focus from short-term price fluctuations to deeper structural changes.

2025: A Turning Point for Institutional Adoption — Historical Progress on the Foundation

In the Bitcoin industry, short-term price movements tend to attract the most attention, but the actual historical leap has occurred at the institutional level. Saylor points out that, as of the end of 2024, the number of companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets was about 30–60, and by the end of 2025, this number is expected to increase to approximately 200. This is not just a numerical increase but signifies a dramatic shift in recognition by institutional financial entities.

More importantly, the revival of insurance coverage marks a significant development. When Saylor began purchasing Bitcoin in 2020, insurance companies collectively canceled their policies. Over the following four years, individuals had to rely on personal assets for insurance coverage, but in 2025, insurance coverage was restored. With the introduction of fair value accounting, companies can now recognize unrealized capital gains from Bitcoin holdings as profits. Simultaneously, governments officially recognize Bitcoin as a major digital commodity worldwide. Most major US banks have begun offering loans collateralized by IBIT (Bitcoin ETFs), with about 25% of banks announcing plans for direct Bitcoin collateralized loans.

The Ministry of Finance has also issued positive guidance on integrating cryptocurrencies into bank balance sheets, and senior officials from the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) and SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) have expressed support for Bitcoin. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has accelerated the commercialization of derivatives markets, introducing a physical exchange mechanism (tax-free) for converting $1 million worth of Bitcoin into $1 million IBIT. These developments indicate that Bitcoin has evolved from a speculative asset to an institutional investment asset.

The Futility of Short-term Price Predictions and the Importance of a Long-term Perspective

Market participants strongly believe in the four-year cycle theory, and short-term price declines are causing concern across the industry. However, Saylor reframes this by stating that short-term price predictions are meaningless and emphasizes the need for a long-term perspective. Over the past 10,000 years, ideal social movements have typically unfolded over decades. If the true goal is the commercialization of Bitcoin, evaluating it over weeks or months is fundamentally flawed.

Evaluating Bitcoin’s performance using a four-year moving average reveals a highly bullish trend. Saylor argues that attempting to predict the price in 2026 from 90-day or 180-day perspectives is pointless. The network is heading in the right direction, and the recent 90-day price declines have actually been an optimal opportunity for foresightful investors to buy more Bitcoin. Rephrasing that the entire industry is moving in the right direction shifts the focus from individual time-based anxieties to long-term systemic trust.

Corporate Bitcoin Holdings — From Criticism to Understanding

There are concerns that the purchase of Bitcoin by over 200 companies might be overly speculative. However, Saylor fundamentally reinterprets this, positioning corporate Bitcoin acquisitions as a “tool acquisition for productivity enhancement.”

For example, consider a company that incurs an annual loss of $10 million but holds $100 million worth of Bitcoin on its balance sheet, realizing a capital gain of $30 million. Criticizing this as an increase in corporate value misses the point. The real issue should be the company’s ongoing losses, and holding Bitcoin is, in essence, a rational management decision.

While there are about 400 million companies worldwide, the concern that the market cannot respond to just 200 Bitcoin-buying companies also needs to be reframed. Saylor uses the metaphor of a “factory with power infrastructure” to define Bitcoin as a universal capital in the digital age. Just as electricity is fundamental infrastructure powering all machinery, Bitcoin serves as a core capital function in the digital economy.

New Developments in the Digital Capital Era: The Potential of the Digital Credit Market

Market concerns about Strategy’s strategic direction are also fundamentally reframed by Saylor. The company does not intend to enter banking but aims to leverage dollar reserves to enhance corporate creditworthiness and expand into the digital credit market. The reason for avoiding traditional banking is to prevent dispersing management resources and to focus on securing a global advantage in the digital credit space.

Credit investors view Bitcoin and stock volatility as high risk, so Strategy aims to strengthen creditworthiness through dollar reserves. Achieving an ideal product model with a 10% dividend yield and a P/B ratio of 1–2 could unlock a potential market size of $10 trillion just by capturing 10% of the US Treasury bond market. Everyone will want this product, and areas such as senior credit, corporate credit, and Bitcoin-collateralized derivatives have far greater scalability compared to traditional financial markets.

A notable legal point is that the value of a business’s stock is influenced not only by current capital utilization but also by future execution plans. Even in areas where Saylor has not yet realized projects, the ability to execute is a completely different matter, and this is a core concern in corporate valuation. The combination of Bitcoin as a universal digital capital and digital credit as financial infrastructure holds the potential to reshape traditional financial systems.